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Ayr

Every steam move alert fired at Ayr, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 18 September 2026 · HorseWhale

All time
98
alerts
81%
beat SP
+4.2
avg probability points vs SP
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Motown Filly
Ayr · 13:20 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 5/1
23 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 4.
• Trainer in form. 24% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +10.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:18, 18 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Flying Fletcher
Ayr · 16:15 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 13/2
Still 9/1 at 4 firms when alerted
10 Bet · Hollywood Bets · BetTom · BetWright
21 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time p.
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
-15% better than SP · -1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:33, 18 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Furturra
Ayr · 13:55 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
16/1 → 12/1
24 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +2.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:15, 18 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Penelope's Sister
Ayr · 16:45 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 3/1
Still 10/3 at 9 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet
8 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Ayr. 1/16 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 12 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 2.75
Beat SP: Yes
+57% better than SP · +13.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:42, 18 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Ice Cube
Ayr · 16:45 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power · Matchbook · Smarkets
13 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Ayr. 1/1 at this course.
• Trainer in form. 24% last 14 days.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 2.38
Beat SP: Yes
+152% better than SP · +25.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:36, 18 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Empirestateofmind
Ayr · 16:15 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 13/2
Still 7/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Paddy Power · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · 10 Bet
19 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• Ayr. 1/1 at this course.
Risks
• Up 11lb. 23lb below career-high OR 90.
Previously on record
Alerted 6 Sept · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+42% better than SP · +4.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:09, 18 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Motawaared
Ayr · 16:15 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/2 → 3/1
18 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 12 Sept · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 3.00
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +8.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:03, 18 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatListed
Fluorescence
Ayr · 15:05 · 14 runners · Listed
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 6 firms when alerted
BetMGM · Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
18 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 5½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 16 Aug · won
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 7/1 (7.80)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+73% better than SP · +9.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:57, 18 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Starliner
Ayr · 16:45 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 11/1
Still 14/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes
14 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Ayr. 1/9 at this course.
Risks
• Up 6lb. 9lb below career-high OR 74.
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · won
RESULT
NON-RUNNER
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
Permanent record · Fired 07:57, 18 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Glorious Kitty
Ayr · 16:15 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 12 firms when alerted
William Hill · Bet365 · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Quinn Bet
6 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Ayr. 1/3 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 29 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 8/1 (8.80)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+4% better than SP · +0.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 18 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatListed
Beautiful Diamond
Ayr · 15:05 · 14 runners · Listed
THE MOVE
13/8 → 11/8
Still 13/8 at 2 firms when alerted
Smarkets · Matchbook
10 firms had already cut to 11/8 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Ayr. 1/2 at this course.
• Trainer in form. 23% last 14 days.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 7/4 (2.70)
SP: 2.62
Beat SP: Yes
+3% better than SP · +1.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 18 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Cascade Hall
Ayr · 17:20 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
1/1 → 5/6
Still 1/1 at 3 firms when alerted
William Hill · Smarkets · Matchbook
19 firms had already cut to 5/6 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Ayr. 1/5 at this course.
Risks
• Up 9lb. 2lb below career-high OR 66.
Previously on record
Alerted 11 Sept · won
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 1/1 (2.00)
SP: 1.83
Beat SP: Yes
+9% better than SP · +4.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 18 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatListed
Lam Yai
Ayr · 15:05 · 14 runners · Listed
THE MOVE
18/1 → 12/1
23 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 23% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 5½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 18 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Wild Thoughts
Ayr · 15:00 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
3/1 → 11/4
Still 3/1 at 14 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Midnite · Paddy Power · Virgin Bet
7 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 10 Sept · placed
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 10/3 (4.40)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+17% better than SP · +3.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 14:09, 17 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlat
Perfect Heir
Ayr · 13:30 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
11/2 → 9/2
Still 11/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Unibet · Matchbook · 10 Bet · BetTom · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
13 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/2 (6.60)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: No
-12% better than SP · -1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 12:42, 17 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Runninsonofagun
Ayr · 15:30 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 7/1
Still 8/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Matchbook · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Ayr. 1/7 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 9 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 8/1 (9.20)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: Yes
+2% better than SP · +0.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:33, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
You Sexy Thing
Ayr · 16:00 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 14 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Ladbrokes · Star Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · 7Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Midnite · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
12 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Previously on record
Alerted 4 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 6/1 (6.80)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+57% better than SP · +8.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:24, 17 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Minstrel Knight
Ayr · 17:01 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 11/2
Still 7/1 at 5 firms when alerted
William Hill · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets
20 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.
RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 15/2 (8.60)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+43% better than SP · +5.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:36, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Tarmonbarry Kid
Ayr · 15:30 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 12 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · 7Bet · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Midnite · Virgin Bet
6 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 29 Aug · won
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +1.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:36, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Thankfully
Ayr · 14:30 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/1 → 8/1
25 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 24% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 21 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
-31% better than SP · -3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:18, 17 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlat
Shared Odyssey
Ayr · 13:30 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
9/1 → 15/2
Still 9/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +3.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:54, 17 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Golden West
Ayr · 17:01 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 15/2
Still 9/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 3.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+25% better than SP · +2.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:45, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Sweet Kiss
Ayr · 14:30 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
23 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 9 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+62% better than SP · +8.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:33, 17 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
They All Know Me
Ayr · 16:00 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Smarkets · Matchbook
22 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 7/1 (8.20)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+37% better than SP · +4.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:33, 17 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlat
Zarak Crown
Ayr · 13:30 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
Still 15/2 at 4 firms when alerted
10 Bet · Betano · BetTom · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+113% better than SP · +13.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:30, 17 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Northwest Passage
Ayr · 17:01 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 8/1
Still 9/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · 10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
-15% better than SP · -1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:09, 17 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Vince L'Amour
Ayr · 14:00 · 20 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
17/2 → 15/2
Still 17/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
25 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 8lb. 12lb below career-high OR 82.
Previously on record
Alerted 7 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: Yes
+16% better than SP · +1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:15, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Valley of Flowers
Ayr · 14:30 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
Still 15/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Betfred · Smarkets · Matchbook · Hollywood Bets
21 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 29 Aug · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+80% better than SP · +8.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:12, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Tyrrhenian Thunder
Ayr · 13:30 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
6/1 → 5/1
25 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time h.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
NON-RUNNER
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
Permanent record · Fired 08:06, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Elsass
Ayr · 17:01 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 10 firms when alerted
William Hill · Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
7 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 6lb. 3lb below career-high OR 88.
• Unproven at 1m5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +3.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:03, 17 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Great Profit
Ayr · 14:00 · 20 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 17/2
Still 11/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 12
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+41% better than SP · +3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:03, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Galyx
Ayr · 15:00 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 5 firms when alerted
William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power
14 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Good To Soft vs Good. First run on this going.
Previously on record
Alerted 30 Aug · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 9/2 (5.30)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: No
-18% better than SP · -3.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:51, 17 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Oriental Prince
Ayr · 14:00 · 20 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/4 → 9/4
Still 11/4 at 10 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Midnite
17 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 18lb. 12lb below career-high OR 81.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 4
Alert price: 4/1 (4.80)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: No
-13% better than SP · -2.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:51, 17 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Kelpie Grey
Ayr · 16:30 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Smarkets · Matchbook
22 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time v.
Previously on record
Alerted 10 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 8/1 (9.20)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Impartiality
Ayr · 15:00 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power · 10 Bet
12 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 12 Sept · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 5/1 (5.90)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+48% better than SP · +8.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Vince Le Prince
Ayr · 16:30 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 11/4
Still 10/3 at 8 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · Matchbook · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet · Smarkets
13 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.
Previously on record
Alerted 12 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 10/3 (4.40)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +2.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Magwitch
Ayr · 13:30 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
6/1 → 5/1
Still 6/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 3.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +3.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Sailthisshipalone
Ayr · 16:00 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 7/2
Still 9/2 at 6 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Star Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
19 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: No
-25% better than SP · -4.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Jkr Cobbler
Ayr · 16:30 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
Still 15/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Ayr. 2/9 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+6% better than SP · +0.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
The Caltonian
Ayr · 14:00 · 20 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 11/2
Still 7/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 8lb. 27lb below career-high OR 94.
Previously on record
Alerted 22 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 16
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +3.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
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