How HorseWhale grades every alert
Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 8 August 2026 · Reviewed 8 August 2026 · HorseWhale · Sourced from published market data and academic research; see linked sources.
Each alert sent by HorseWhale is graded against two prices once the race is run: the official Starting Price and the Betfair Starting Price. The grade records whether the alerted price beat SP — not whether the horse won. Every receipt, pass or fail, is published permanently.
Why does HorseWhale grade on price captured, not on outcome?
The primary receipt metric is price captured versus SP and Betfair SP. Win, place or loss is retained as secondary context only — it appears on every receipt, but it is never the grade.
Each alert names a price and the bookmakers still offering it at the moment it is sent. Once the race is run, that price is compared against two numbers: the official Starting Price and the Betfair Starting Price.
We grade on price captured, not on win or loss. That is a deliberate choice. Backing a market mover at the price it has already moved to, by the time the move is complete, has been a losing position in the data behind this product. Grading only on whether the horse won would tell the story of the horse, not the story of whether the alert actually got you a better price than doing nothing. Win, place or loss is still shown as a secondary detail on every receipt. It is informative, just not the headline.
What does every graded receipt show?
Each graded receipt shows: the alerted price (fractional and decimal), the official SP, the Betfair SP, whether the alerted price beat SP, the race result (won / placed / unplaced / non-runner), and the timestamp of the original alert. Every receipt links back to the same permanent URL — nothing is removed and nothing is edited after publication.
PLACED uses field-size places: 1 place under 5 runners, 2 for 5 to 7, 3 for 8 to 15, 4 for 16 or more. The 16-plus non-handicap variation is not applied; the page describes the code that runs.
Alerts that did not beat SP stay up exactly as alerts that did. The archive is the evidence base, not a curated highlight reel.
This methodology is the proof layer behind every page that cites the archive: the At The Races head-to-head, the racing price-alert tools comparison, why morning racing markets behave differently, how market movers are defined and what a steamer is. Every number those pages quote traces back to the published alert receipts.
Common questions
Does an early price move mean the horse will win?
No. HorseWhale grades on price captured versus SP — not on whether the horse won. An alerted price that beat SP is a pass whether the horse finished first or last. Whether the horse won is shown as a secondary detail on every receipt, because it is informative, but it is not the grade.
What should I look for in an odds tracking tool?
Four things matter: whether alerts are pushed to you or require you to check; whether the alert arrives during the move or after; how honestly the provider states its latency; and whether past alerts are published with outcomes. A tool that publishes graded receipts openly can be evaluated on its own record.
How does HorseWhale compare to other racing services?
Most racing services list completed price moves, or push editorial content, or require you to visit a page. HorseWhale sends a push alert while the cut is still in progress, names the bookmakers still showing the earlier price, and publishes a graded receipt for every alert ever sent.
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