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Ayr

Every steam move alert fired at Ayr, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 17 September 2026 · HorseWhale

All time
98
alerts
81%
beat SP
+4.2
avg probability points vs SP
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Orangesandlemons
Ayr · 15:30 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 5/1
Still 6/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
21 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.
Risks
• Up 8lb. 4lb below career-high OR 77.
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 13/2 (7.60)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+52% better than SP · +6.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Bassrah
Ayr · 13:30 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
3/1 → 11/4
Still 3/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Unibet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · Matchbook · Paddy Power · 10 Bet · Smarkets
18 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 3.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 29 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 2.88
Beat SP: Yes
+39% better than SP · +9.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Ashnak
Ayr · 17:01 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 11/4
Still 10/3 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Star Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets
20 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 3.
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
-13% better than SP · -3.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Atmosphere
Ayr · 15:30 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 9/2
Still 11/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Previously on record
Alerted 4 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 6/1 (6.80)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+24% better than SP · +3.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 17 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Keep An Eye On It
Ayr · 17:15 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 3/1
Still 10/3 at 2 firms when alerted
Unibet · PricedUp Bet
16 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 4.00
BSP: 4.14
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +1.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 16:29, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Baby Rover
Ayr · 15:45 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 9/1
20 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 13
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 9.00
BSP: 12.50
Beat SP: Yes
+11% better than SP · +1.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 15:42, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Pivotal Terms
Ayr · 15:45 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
18/1 → 14/1
Still 18/1 at 12 firms when alerted
Coral · Star Sports · PricedUp Bet · BetTom · 10 Bet · BetWright · CopyBet · BetAhoy · Octobet · BresBet · 7Bet · Quinn Bet
16 firms had already cut to 14/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 20/1 (21.00)
SP: 15.00
BSP: 20.00
Beat SP: Yes
+40% better than SP · +1.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 15:33, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Cisco Disco
Ayr · 15:15 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
50/1 → 28/1
26 firms had already cut to 28/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 28/1 (29.00)
SP: 81.00
BSP: 150.00
Beat SP: No
-64% better than SP · -2.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 14:47, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Kelpie Grey
Ayr · 14:45 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Unibet · PricedUp Bet · BetTom · 10 Bet · BetWright · BetAhoy · Octobet
18 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 4.00
BSP: 4.83
Beat SP: Yes
+63% better than SP · +9.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 14:18, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Carmel Valley
Ayr · 14:45 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Unibet
23 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 5.00
BSP: 5.60
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:50, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Sixcor
Ayr · 15:45 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
16/1 → 12/1
26 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 13.00
BSP: 18.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:26, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Penelope's Sister
Ayr · 16:15 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 10 firms when alerted
William Hill · Coral · Betfred · Ladbrokes · BetTom · 10 Bet · PricedUp Bet · BetAhoy · Octobet · Midnite
9 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 5.00
BSP: 6.25
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:20, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Sweet Kiss
Ayr · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 13/2
Still 7/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Ladbrokes · William Hill · Coral · Betfred · Virgin Bet · LiveScore Bet
23 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 6.00
BSP: 6.80
Beat SP: Yes
+42% better than SP · +4.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:17, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Pal Joey
Ayr · 14:45 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
22/1 → 16/1
26 firms had already cut to 16/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 26.00
BSP: 37.76
Beat SP: No
-35% better than SP · -2.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 12:20, 10 Aug 2026
Flat
Hostelry
Ayr · 14:15 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
9/4 → 2/1
Still 9/4 at 10 firms when alerted
William Hill · Unibet · BetTom · 10 Bet · Virgin Bet · LiveScore Bet · PricedUp Bet · BetAhoy · Octobet · Midnite
13 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/4 (3.25)
SP: 3.50
BSP: 3.76
Beat SP: No
-7% better than SP · -2.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 12:17, 10 Aug 2026
Flat
Concert Boy
Ayr · 14:15 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
13/2 → 6/1
Still 13/2 at 5 firms when alerted
William Hill · Betfred · PricedUp Bet · 10 Bet · CopyBet
20 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 6.00
BSP: 10.92
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +4.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 12:17, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Tee Aitch Aye
Ayr · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 13 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Betfred · Star Sports · 10 Bet · Virgin Bet · BetWright · LiveScore Bet · Dragon Bet · PricedUp Bet · BresBet · BestOdds · Quinn Bet
4 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 4.50
BSP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +5.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 12:05, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Spirit Catcher
Ayr · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 11/2
Still 6/1 at 1 firm when alerted
PricedUp Bet
26 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 4.33
BSP: 4.93
Beat SP: Yes
+62% better than SP · +8.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 12:02, 10 Aug 2026
Flat
Due Respect
Ayr · 14:15 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
16/1 → 12/1
Still 16/1 at 1 firm when alerted
PricedUp Bet
26 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 10.00
BSP: 11.89
Beat SP: Yes
+70% better than SP · +4.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:59, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Light The Night Up
Ayr · 17:15 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 6 firms when alerted
PricedUp Bet · BetTom · CopyBet · BetAhoy · Octobet · Midnite
20 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 7.50
BSP: 8.27
Beat SP: Yes
+13% better than SP · +1.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:32, 10 Aug 2026
FlatMAIDEN
Next Of Kin
Ayr · 13:45 · 9 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
1/1 → 5/6
Still 1/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Virgin Bet · LiveScore Bet
5 firms had already cut to 5/6 when alerted
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 1/1 (2.00)
SP: 1.91
BSP: 2.04
Beat SP: Yes
+5% better than SP · +2.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:32, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Ravenscraig Castle
Ayr · 16:15 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
26 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 15.00
BSP: 22.56
Beat SP: No
-33% better than SP · -3.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:08, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Lorca's Waltz
Ayr · 15:15 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 1 firm when alerted
PricedUp Bet
24 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 7.00
BSP: 8.80
Beat SP: Yes
+14% better than SP · +1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:08, 10 Aug 2026
FlatMAIDEN
Fly Smartly
Ayr · 13:45 · 9 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
3/1 → 11/4
Still 3/1 at 11 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet365 · William Hill · Star Sports · BetTom · 10 Bet · CopyBet · BetAhoy · Octobet · Midnite · Quinn Bet
4 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 4.00
BSP: 4.70
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +1.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:59, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Ziata
Ayr · 15:15 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/1 → 8/1
26 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 13.00
BSP: 18.00
Beat SP: No
-31% better than SP · -3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:56, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Northwest Passage
Ayr · 15:15 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 17/2
20 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 17/2 (9.75)
SP: 9.00
BSP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:47, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Naturalia
Ayr · 16:15 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
6 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 4.00
BSP: 4.60
Beat SP: Yes
+25% better than SP · +5.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:35, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Napolian
Ayr · 17:15 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
17/2 → 7/1
25 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 8.00
BSP: 9.76
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:32, 10 Aug 2026
FlatMAIDEN
Desert Smoke
Ayr · 13:45 · 9 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Unibet
25 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 8.00
BSP: 9.78
Beat SP: No
-6% better than SP · -0.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:29, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Henery Hawk
Ayr · 15:45 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/1 → 8/1
26 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 13.00
BSP: 15.07
Beat SP: No
-31% better than SP · -3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:26, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Royal Blaze
Ayr · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/4 → 5/2
Still 11/4 at 7 firms when alerted
William Hill · Betfred · BetTom · Virgin Bet · LiveScore Bet · BetAhoy · Octobet
10 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 11/4 (3.75)
SP: 4.33
BSP: 4.50
Beat SP: No
-13% better than SP · -3.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:17, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Head For Freedom
Ayr · 15:45 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 9/1
26 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 13.00
BSP: 24.00
Beat SP: No
-23% better than SP · -2.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:14, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Pearl Eye
Ayr · 15:15 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
11 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 4.33
BSP: 4.90
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +4.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:11, 10 Aug 2026
FlatMAIDEN
Ashina
Ayr · 13:45 · 9 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
16/1 → 12/1
24 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 13.00
BSP: 20.80
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:11, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Edmond Halley
Ayr · 15:45 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Star Sports
10 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 4.00
BSP: 4.30
Beat SP: Yes
+25% better than SP · +5.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:11, 10 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Lesrico
Ayr · 16:15 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Boyle Sports · LiveScore Bet · 7Bet · Quinn Bet
21 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 5.00
BSP: 5.80
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:11, 10 Aug 2026
Flat
Wicklow Way
Ayr · 20:30 · 12 runners · Other
THE MOVE
3/1 → 5/2
28 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 10/3 (4.20)
SP: 4.50
BSP: 6.00
Beat SP: No
-7% better than SP · -1.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 20:07, 8 Aug 2026
Flat
Sanny Doo
Ayr · 20:30 · 12 runners · Other
THE MOVE
40/1 → 33/1
Still 40/1 at 11 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Coral · Betfred · Boyle Sports · Ladbrokes · Virgin Bet · BetWright · LiveScore Bet · PricedUp Bet · Quinn Bet
27 firms had already cut to 33/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 12
Alert price: 50/1 (51.00)
SP: 34.00
BSP: 60.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +1.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 19:43, 8 Aug 2026
Flat
Sassy Glory
Ayr · 20:30 · 12 runners · Other
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Coral · Ladbrokes
19 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 17/2 (9.40)
SP: 6.50
BSP: 7.40
Beat SP: Yes
+45% better than SP · +4.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 19:37, 8 Aug 2026
Flat
Zebra Star
Ayr · 20:30 · 12 runners · Other
THE MOVE
14/1 → 12/1
Still 14/1 at 6 firms when alerted
PricedUp Bet · Bet365 · William Hill · Coral · Betfred · Ladbrokes
24 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 16/1 (17.50)
SP: 15.00
BSP: 23.51
Beat SP: Yes
+17% better than SP · +1.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 19:37, 8 Aug 2026
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