Receipts

Every alert we have ever sent, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP. Including the ones that didn't come off.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 19 September 2026 · HorseWhale

7963 alerts since 9 August 2026 · avg +3.6 probability points vs SP · 72% beat SP

Probability points measure how much better a price was than SP in terms of the chance it implies, so a move at 2/1 and a move at 50/1 are measured on the same scale.

Current detection ruleset in force since 9 August 2026. Alerts sent under earlier rules remain in the archive and are excluded from these figures.

Browse the archive

🟢 STRONGHurdleHANDICAP

Knocknagoran Lady

Navan · 16:35 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 12 firms when alerted
Unibet · Betfred · Star Sports · William Hill · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power

8 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 2m5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished PU
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: No
-7% better than SP · -1.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:16, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWHurdleMAIDEN

Ivatt

Navan · 13:07 · 16 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Unibet · 10 Bet

23 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

Risks

• Up 11lb. Career-high OR unavailable.

Previously on record

Alerted 16 Aug · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+62% better than SP · +8.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:16, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPHurdleHANDICAP

Goin'

Navan · 15:26 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/3 → 3/1

Still 10/3 at 10 firms when alerted
Unibet · Betfred · Matchbook · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet

11 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 40% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.

Risks

• Up 8lb. Career-high OR 96.

Previously on record

Alerted 26 Aug · placed

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 4/1 (5.10)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+57% better than SP · +11.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:16, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGHurdleHANDICAP

Scary Askari

Navan · 14:52 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 11 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet365 · William Hill · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Paddy Power

11 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · top 50% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 2m3f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 14
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+85% better than SP · +14.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:16, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMHurdleMAIDEN

Market Square

Navan · 14:17 · 16 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

3/1 → 5/2

Still 3/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Star Sports · Unibet · William Hill · 10 Bet · BetWright · Hollywood Bets

13 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 2m3f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
-13% better than SP · -3.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:13, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Tees George

Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 7/2

Still 9/2 at 10 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power

4 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 10% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 28 Aug · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 5/1 (5.80)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: No
-3% better than SP · -0.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:10, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Dwindling Funds

Ayr · 16:50 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/2 → 4/1

Still 11/2 at 6 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet Victor · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betano · BetTom

14 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Ayr. 4/13 at this course.

Previously on record

Alerted 6 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 7/1 (7.80)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+73% better than SP · +9.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:07, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Project Kinsman

Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

12/1 → 10/1

Still 12/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Smarkets

22 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +2.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:07, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Son

Ayr · 16:50 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

12/1 → 17/2

Still 12/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Unibet · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betano · BetTom

17 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 29 Aug · placed

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 14/1 (14.50)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+93% better than SP · +6.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:07, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Quest For Fun

Ayr · 16:50 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/1 → 5/1

Still 7/1 at 11 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet Victor · Star Sports · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betano · BetTom · 7Bet · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Midnite

15 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 4.

Risks

• Up 10lb. 4lb below career-high OR 82.

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +10.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:07, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Blakefell

Ayr · 16:50 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/1 → 7/1

Still 9/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Star Sports · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betano

24 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 2 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 9/1 (10.50)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +3.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:07, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Cotai Belle

Ayr · 16:50 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

14/1 → 11/1

Still 14/1 at 11 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Star Sports · Unibet · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betano · BetTom · Midnite · 7Bet · BetWright · Dragon Bet

13 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 4.

Risks

• Up 8lb. 2lb below career-high OR 81.

Previously on record

Alerted 5 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 18/1 (19.50)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+63% better than SP · +3.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:07, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatGroup 3

Dark Issue

Ayr · 15:05 · 5 runners · Group 3

THE MOVE

3/1 → 11/4

Still 3/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets

15 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 30% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 3 Sept · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
-13% better than SP · -3.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:04, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Azuinthejungle

Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

12/1 → 9/1

Still 12/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets

20 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: Yes
+44% better than SP · +3.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:04, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Blue Force

Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

20/1 → 14/1

Still 20/1 at 2 firms when alerted
10 Bet · Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 14/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 7 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 20/1 (21.00)
SP: 26.00
Beat SP: No
-19% better than SP · -0.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:04, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP

Smart Vision

Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 11/2

Still 6/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Betfred · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook

12 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.

• First-time v.

Previously on record

Alerted 13 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 6/1 (7.20)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +4.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:58, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP

Volenti

Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/2 → 9/2

Still 11/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · top 50% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 31 Aug · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+44% better than SP · +6.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:58, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlat

Havana Flash

Chester · 14:00 · 8 runners · Other

THE MOVE

15/8 → 11/8

Still 15/8 at 5 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet365 · Smarkets · Matchbook · 10 Bet

4 firms had already cut to 11/8 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 5% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 1 to Class 4.

• First-time t.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 9/4 (3.25)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: No
-25% better than SP · -7.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:58, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

West Sleekburn Lad

Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

Still 11/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Unibet · William Hill · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet

18 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 6.

• Trainer in form. 25% last 14 days.

Risks

• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +5.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:52, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGFlatListed

Ice Max

Ayr · 13:55 · 6 runners · Listed

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 14 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · Unibet · Matchbook · 10 Bet · 7Bet · Betano · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Midnite · Quinn Bet · Smarkets

9 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · top 50% of alerts today

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/1 (6.20)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+38% better than SP · +6.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:45, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Manbearpig

Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

Still 11/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Star Sports · Unibet · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet · 7Bet · BetTom · Midnite

16 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

Previously on record

Alerted 26 Aug · lost

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+136% better than SP · +10.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:45, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Java Wood

Gowran Park · 17:02 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

Still 15/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Smarkets · BetWright · Hollywood Bets

19 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Gowran Park. 1/2 at this course.

Risks

• Up 13lb. Career-high OR 73.

Previously on record

Alerted 8 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: No
-10% better than SP · -1.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:43, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatGroup 3

Faiyum

Gowran Park · 15:50 · 12 runners · Group 3

THE MOVE

7/4 → 6/4

Still 7/4 at 7 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Smarkets · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet

4 firms had already cut to 6/4 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 40% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Gowran Park. 1/2 at this course.

Previously on record

Alerted 29 Aug · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 7/4 (2.78)
SP: 2.38
Beat SP: Yes
+17% better than SP · +6.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:40, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWHurdleHANDICAP

Demanding Gerry

Navan · 14:52 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

14/1 → 11/1

Still 14/1 at 3 firms when alerted
William Hill · BetWright · Hollywood Bets

19 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 3 Sept · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+114% better than SP · +7.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:37, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP

Lord Abama

Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

Still 11/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Hollywood Bets

22 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · top 50% of alerts today

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:37, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWHurdleHANDICAP

Lips Freedom

Navan · 13:42 · 13 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

14/1 → 11/1

23 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Risks

• Up 11lb. Career-high OR 113.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+118% better than SP · +9.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:33, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlat

Ohara

Chester · 15:10 · 9 runners · Other

THE MOVE

7/1 → 6/1

Still 7/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Unibet · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · LiveScore Bet · Midnite · Virgin Bet

18 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 30% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 1m2½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

Previously on record

Alerted 30 Aug · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 7/1 (8.20)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+2% better than SP · +0.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:33, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatGroup 3

Shagraan

Newbury · 13:02 · 11 runners · Group 3

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

Still 16/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betano

17 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Why it rates

• First-time p.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+42% better than SP · +2.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:33, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlat

Santushti

Newmarket · 16:55 · 10 runners · Other

THE MOVE

9/1 → 8/1

Still 9/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook

21 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 3.

• Trainer in form. 26% last 14 days.

Risks

• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 9/1 (9.80)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+15% better than SP · +1.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:30, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Explosive Finnish

Newmarket · 15:00 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet365 · BetMGM · Unibet · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet

10 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 10% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 6 Sept · placed

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/1 (5.80)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+29% better than SP · +5.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:30, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatGroup 3

Silent Beauty

Ayr · 15:05 · 5 runners · Group 3

THE MOVE

9/4 → 2/1

Still 9/4 at 7 firms when alerted
William Hill · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet · Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom · Midnite

6 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 30% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 31 Aug · won

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 1.73
Beat SP: Yes
+102% better than SP · +29.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:24, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Melon

Chester · 17:25 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

2/1 → 7/4

Still 2/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Unibet · 10 Bet · 7Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets

9 firms had already cut to 7/4 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 40% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 5.

Risks

• Unproven at 1m6½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 2/1 (3.00)
SP: 2.25
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +11.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:24, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Parole Officer

Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

Still 11/1 at 6 firms when alerted
William Hill · Matchbook · 7Bet · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Smarkets

17 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 2 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 11/1 (12.50)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+189% better than SP · +15.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:18, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Gonna Fly

Newbury · 14:47 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

Still 15/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet

20 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Newbury. 1/2 at this course.

RESULT

NON-RUNNER

Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)

Permanent record · Fired 10:15, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Golden Brown

Chester · 15:46 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

14/1 → 10/1

Still 14/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

19 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Risks

• Up 6lb. 6lb below career-high OR 86.

Previously on record

Alerted 4 Sept · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+15% better than SP · +1.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:15, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Men of Honour

Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 6/1

Still 15/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

19 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 20% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 2 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+6% better than SP · +0.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:15, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlat

Mayaada

Chester · 15:10 · 9 runners · Other

THE MOVE

10/1 → 17/2

Still 10/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet

22 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 40% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 10 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+167% better than SP · +13.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:12, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Raise The Stakes

Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/2 → 9/2

Still 11/2 at 4 firms when alerted
William Hill · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power · Matchbook

8 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 30% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

Previously on record

Alerted 8 Aug · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +4.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:06, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Diligent Resdev

Chester · 16:52 · 8 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

Still 16/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · 7Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite

19 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 3 Sept · lost

RESULT

NON-RUNNER

Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)

Permanent record · Fired 10:06, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatMAIDEN

Deeno Bambino

Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 10 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

14/1 → 12/1

Still 14/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets

21 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Why it rates

• First-time t.

• Trainer in form. 100% last 14 days.

Risks

• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 16/1 (16.50)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +0.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:03, 19 Sept 2026

How these receipts are graded

Each alert is graded on price captured, not on win or loss. Once the race is run, the alerted price is compared against the official Starting Price and the Betfair Starting Price. A receipt passes when the alerted price beat SP. The result of the race — won, placed, unplaced — is shown as a secondary detail on every card.

Nothing on this page is edited after publication. Alerts that did not beat SP stay up exactly as alerts that did. Full grading methodology →

Search HorseWhale horse records · Read the grading methodology · How to check if a horse was backed

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