Receipts

Every alert we have ever sent, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP. Including the ones that didn't come off.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 19 September 2026 · HorseWhale

7963 alerts since 9 August 2026 · avg +3.6 probability points vs SP · 72% beat SP

Probability points measure how much better a price was than SP in terms of the chance it implies, so a move at 2/1 and a move at 50/1 are measured on the same scale.

Current detection ruleset in force since 9 August 2026. Alerts sent under earlier rules remain in the archive and are excluded from these figures.

Browse the archive

🟡 MEDIUMFlatMAIDEN

Aeternitas

Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 10 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

8/1 → 15/2

Still 8/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets · Virgin Bet

22 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.

Risks

• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 17/2 (9.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+58% better than SP · +6.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 16:57, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlat

Tyrrhenian Thunder

Ayr · 16:15 · 5 runners · Other

THE MOVE

8/1 → 13/2

Still 8/1 at 12 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · BetMGM · Star Sports · Matchbook · 7Bet · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet · 10 Bet

13 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Why it rates

• First-time h.

Risks

• Heavy vs Good To Soft. First run on this going.

• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/1 (10.50)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+91% better than SP · +8.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 15:54, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Waistcoat

Newmarket · 15:45 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

Still 11/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · Quinn Bet · 7Bet · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook

18 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 17 Aug · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +2.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 15:43, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Dance In The Storm

Ayr · 15:40 · 24 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Smarkets · Matchbook · Hollywood Bets

22 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Trainer in form. 21% last 14 days.

Previously on record

Alerted 22 Aug · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 13/2 (7.60)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+38% better than SP · +5.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 15:22, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Kirkdale

Chester · 15:46 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

Still 13/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Unibet

8 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Trainer in form. 21% last 14 days.

Previously on record

Alerted 3 Sept · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +4.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 15:22, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlat

Let's Dream

Chester · 15:10 · 9 runners · Other

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

22 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 4.

• Chester. 1/7 at this course.

Previously on record

Alerted 6 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: No
-37% better than SP · -5.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 15:04, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlat

Reds And Wolves

Chester · 15:10 · 9 runners · Other

THE MOVE

12/1 → 9/1

Still 12/1 at 5 firms when alerted
10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet

18 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 1m2½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 14:55, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatGroup 3

Etonnante

Ayr · 15:05 · 5 runners · Group 3

THE MOVE

17/2 → 13/2

Still 17/2 at 5 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet

15 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 4 Sept · won

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 9/1 (10.50)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+24% better than SP · +2.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 14:49, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMHurdleHANDICAP

Can Happen

Navan · 16:35 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 10 firms when alerted
Star Sports · Unibet · William Hill · Smarkets · Matchbook · 10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets

12 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Risks

• Up 8lb. Career-high OR 111.

• Unproven at 2m5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/2 (6.40)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+7% better than SP · +1.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 14:46, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

South Shore Island

Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/1 → 17/2

Still 10/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · LiveScore Bet · Matchbook · Virgin Bet

9 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 11 Aug · lost

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: No
-8% better than SP · -0.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:52, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatListed

El Burhan

Ayr · 13:55 · 6 runners · Listed

THE MOVE

14/1 → 11/1

Still 14/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

21 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Ayr. 1/1 at this course.

• First-time tb.

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+55% better than SP · +3.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:52, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Ellie's de Vega

Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

4/1 → 7/2

Still 4/1 at 10 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · William Hill · Matchbook · 7Bet · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Smarkets · Virgin Bet

8 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 5% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Newcastle (AW). 1/5 at this course.

Previously on record

Alerted 2 Sept · won

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 4/1 (5.10)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+36% better than SP · +7.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:49, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWHurdleMAIDEN

Returning Officer

Navan · 14:17 · 16 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 11 firms when alerted
Betfred · BetMGM · Unibet · Matchbook · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Paddy Power · Smarkets · Virgin Bet

6 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 2m3f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/2 (5.60)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+40% better than SP · +7.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:43, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Balzac

Newbury · 14:47 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 7/1 (8.20)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+26% better than SP · +3.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:43, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Stem

Newbury · 14:47 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

Still 15/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets

21 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 17/2 (9.40)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+45% better than SP · +4.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:37, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Hundred Caps

Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

8/1 → 13/2

Still 8/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Hollywood Bets

22 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

Why it rates

• First run after wind surgery.

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 8/1 (9.20)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +3.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:31, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlat

Impulsive Spirit

Chester · 14:00 · 8 runners · Other

THE MOVE

9/4 → 2/1

Still 9/4 at 14 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · 7Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Paddy Power · Virgin Bet

10 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 30% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 1 to Class 4.

Previously on record

Alerted 3 Sept · lost

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/4 (3.35)
SP: 2.20
Beat SP: Yes
+52% better than SP · +15.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:31, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Boyfriend

Newbury · 14:47 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 13 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Unibet · Smarkets · 10 Bet · 7Bet · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Midnite · Virgin Bet · Matchbook

11 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 20% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 3 Sept · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+39% better than SP · +6.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:28, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMHurdleHANDICAP

Papagei

Navan · 15:26 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

Still 15/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Hollywood Bets · BetTom · Matchbook

21 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today

Risks

• Up 10lb. Career-high OR 94.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 4
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +11.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:28, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatListed

Grey Cuban

Ayr · 13:55 · 6 runners · Listed

THE MOVE

17/2 → 7/1

Still 17/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets

21 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today

RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 17/2 (9.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+58% better than SP · +6.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:25, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWHurdleHANDICAP

Leo Messy

Navan · 14:52 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/1 → 6/1

Still 7/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

21 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +3.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:16, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlat

City House

Gowran Park · 14:06 · 8 runners · Other

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Betfred · Unibet · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet

6 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/1 (6.20)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+38% better than SP · +6.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:13, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlat

Lily Pink

Newmarket · 13:15 · 7 runners · Other

THE MOVE

10/1 → 8/1

Still 10/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Unibet · 10 Bet · Betano · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet

17 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 3.

Previously on record

Alerted 29 Aug · lost

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+140% better than SP · +11.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:10, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWHurdleMAIDEN

Any Chance

Navan · 14:17 · 16 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

7/2 → 3/1

Still 7/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet

11 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 7/2 (4.70)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
-6% better than SP · -1.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:04, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGFlatGroup 3

Dickensian

Newbury · 13:02 · 11 runners · Group 3

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

Still 11/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · BetMGM · Unibet · Betano · BetTom · Hollywood Bets

19 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today

RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +4.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:40, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP

Furthur

Newbury · 13:37 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

8/1 → 7/1

22 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Newbury. 1/2 at this course.

• Trainer in form. 21% last 14 days.

Risks

• Up 7lb. 8lb below career-high OR 112.

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: No
-20% better than SP · -2.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:28, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Prosperity

Newmarket · 13:50 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/2 → 3/1

12 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 20% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 16 Aug · won

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: No
-8% better than SP · -1.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:22, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Sovereigns High

Chester · 14:35 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/1 → 17/2

Still 10/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Unibet · Smarkets

12 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: Yes
+16% better than SP · +1.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:19, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Aalto

Newbury · 15:55 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

4/1 → 7/2

Still 4/1 at 11 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betfred · Star Sports · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · Betano · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Midnite

8 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

Risks

• Up 9lb. 6lb below career-high OR 96.

Previously on record

Alerted 4 Sept · placed

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.40)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+35% better than SP · +6.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:19, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Pearl River

Newbury · 13:37 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/1 → 8/1

Still 10/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Unibet · William Hill · 10 Bet · Betano · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power

18 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today

Risks

• Unproven at 1m5½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

Previously on record

Alerted 22 Aug · lost

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +9.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:13, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Surgeon Commander

Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/1 → 6/1

Still 7/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

22 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Newcastle (AW). 3/6 at this course.

Previously on record

Alerted 31 Aug · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+42% better than SP · +4.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:13, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP

Melissa Honey

Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/3 → 3/1

Still 10/3 at 8 firms when alerted
Unibet · Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets

16 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 30% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.

Previously on record

Alerted 11 Aug · won

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 4/1 (4.90)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
-2% better than SP · -0.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:04, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Koodini

Chester · 14:35 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

12/1 → 17/2

Still 12/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Unibet · 10 Bet · BetTom

17 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+36% better than SP · +2.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:58, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Moonstone Boy

Chester · 15:46 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

12/1 → 10/1

Still 12/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets

21 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 10% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 4 Sept · lost

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 12/1 (14.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +1.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:49, 19 Sept 2026

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP

Ravenscraig Castle

Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

17/2 → 15/2

Still 17/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets

20 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Low · bottom 5% of alerts today

Previously on record

Alerted 2 Sept · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 9/1 (9.80)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+23% better than SP · +2.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:46, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP

Cherry Cobbler

Newmarket · 14:25 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/1 → 11/2

15 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Newmarket. 1/2 at this course.

Risks

• Up 8lb. Career-high OR 82.

Previously on record

Alerted 20 Aug · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +4.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:34, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP

Rapide Vega

Newmarket · 17:30 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

20 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · top 50% of alerts today

Risks

• Up 15lb. Career-high OR 75.

• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

Previously on record

Alerted 29 Aug · placed

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +3.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:34, 19 Sept 2026

🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP

Triple Force

Newmarket · 17:30 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 11/2

Still 6/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · William Hill · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets · Midnite · Quinn Bet

20 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

Selection rating

Strong · top 50% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Newmarket. 1/1 at this course.

Risks

• Up 13lb. 4lb below career-high OR 76.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+45% better than SP · +5.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:31, 19 Sept 2026

🔵 TOPFlat

Dunkeld Dreamer

Chester · 15:10 · 9 runners · Other

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 7 firms when alerted
William Hill · BetTom · 10 Bet · 7Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Smarkets

18 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Top · top 40% of alerts today

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 4.

Risks

• Up 10lb. 2lb below career-high OR 81.

Previously on record

Alerted 30 Aug · lost

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +6.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:25, 19 Sept 2026

🟡 MEDIUMFlatGroup 3

Ruby Moon

Ayr · 15:05 · 5 runners · Group 3

THE MOVE

11/2 → 5/1

Still 11/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Smarkets · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook

23 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Selection rating

Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/2 (6.60)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+2% better than SP · +0.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:19, 19 Sept 2026

How these receipts are graded

Each alert is graded on price captured, not on win or loss. Once the race is run, the alerted price is compared against the official Starting Price and the Betfair Starting Price. A receipt passes when the alerted price beat SP. The result of the race — won, placed, unplaced — is shown as a secondary detail on every card.

Nothing on this page is edited after publication. Alerts that did not beat SP stay up exactly as alerts that did. Full grading methodology →

Search HorseWhale horse records · Read the grading methodology · How to check if a horse was backed

Browse all receipts