Roscommon

Every steam move alert fired at Roscommon, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 31 August 2026 · HorseWhale

All time

alerts

73%

beat SP

+3.1

avg probability points vs SP

FlatHANDICAP

Goal Exceeded

Roscommon · 17:55 · 12 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/2 → 9/2

Still 11/2 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom

23 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 7½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+44% better than SP · +6.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:18, 31 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Thyer

Roscommon · 19:25 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

Still 13/2 at 3 firms when alerted
BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets

19 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: No
-17% better than SP · -2.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:15, 31 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

I Hope You Dance

Roscommon · 18:55 · 15 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

7/1 → 6/1

Still 7/1 at 4 firms when alerted
William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets

19 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 8/1 (9.20)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +3.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:54, 31 Aug 2026

Flat

Joga Bonito

Roscommon · 16:50 · 9 runners · Other

THE MOVE

10/3 → 3/1

Still 10/3 at 3 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Hollywood Bets

14 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 2.75
Beat SP: Yes
+57% better than SP · +13.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:39, 31 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Givehertilxmas

Roscommon · 17:25 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Ladbrokes · William Hill · Matchbook

18 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 2.88
Beat SP: Yes
+91% better than SP · +16.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:36, 31 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Minella Buoy

Roscommon · 19:55 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/1 → 4/1

Still 5/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 1m4f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +4.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 31 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Almazann

Roscommon · 18:55 · 15 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

15/8 → 11/8

Still 15/8 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook

23 firms had already cut to 11/8 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 2/1 (2.94)
SP: 1.67
Beat SP: Yes
+76% better than SP · +25.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 31 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Engines On

Roscommon · 17:55 · 12 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

25/1 → 12/1

Still 25/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

22 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 13lb. 9lb below career-high OR 91.

RESULT

NON-RUNNER

Alert price: 25/1 (26.00)

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 31 Aug 2026

Flat

Sinmara

Roscommon · 18:25 · 5 runners · Other

THE MOVE

3/1 → 11/4

Still 3/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · William Hill · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook

14 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: No
-8% better than SP · -1.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 31 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Earls

Roscommon · 17:55 · 12 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

Still 15/2 at 1 firm when alerted
William Hill

22 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Why it rates

• Roscommon. 1/4 at this course.

RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: No
-11% better than SP · -1.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 31 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Priorstown

Roscommon · 19:55 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/2 → 3/1

Still 7/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook

23 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 14lb. 2lb below career-high OR 61.

• Unproven at 1m4f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 7/2 (4.50)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: No
-18% better than SP · -4.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 31 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

De Vega Queen

Roscommon · 19:45 · 14 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

22/1 → 16/1

Still 22/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets

25 firms had already cut to 16/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 25/1 (27.00)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: Yes
+80% better than SP · +3.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 19:13, 18 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Mehman

Roscommon · 19:15 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

40/1 → 20/1

25 firms had already cut to 20/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 20/1 (21.00)
SP: 21.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 19:10, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Brise Fraiche

Roscommon · 18:45 · 15 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

14/1 → 11/1

Still 14/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Smarkets

25 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 14/1 (16.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +2.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:27, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Beatific

Roscommon · 18:45 · 15 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

18/1 → 12/1

Still 18/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook

24 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 13
Alert price: 18/1 (20.00)
SP: 17.00
Beat SP: Yes
+18% better than SP · +0.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:09, 18 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Mercurial

Roscommon · 19:15 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

17/2 → 15/2

Still 17/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Smarkets · Matchbook

22 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: No
-27% better than SP · -2.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:09, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Moyassr

Roscommon · 17:10 · 10 runners · Other

THE MOVE

14/1 → 11/1

Still 14/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets

23 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 16/1 (17.50)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: Yes
+17% better than SP · +1.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:03, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Nando Royale

Roscommon · 17:45 · 12 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

Still 13/2 at 1 firm when alerted
BetMGM

24 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+14% better than SP · +1.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:48, 18 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Lily Parr

Roscommon · 20:15 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/1 → 15/2

Still 10/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Betfred · BetTom

23 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+29% better than SP · +2.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:30, 18 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Cool Azul

Roscommon · 19:15 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Unibet · Smarkets · Matchbook

12 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 6/1 (7.20)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+11% better than SP · +1.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:12, 18 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Daonethatgotaway

Roscommon · 20:15 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

18/1 → 12/1

Still 18/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Betfred · Matchbook · Smarkets

22 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 14
Alert price: 18/1 (20.00)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +1.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:09, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Oristown Boy

Roscommon · 18:15 · 8 runners · Other

THE MOVE

10/1 → 11/2

Still 10/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · BetTom · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet · 10 Bet · BetWright · talkSPORT BET

17 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+167% better than SP · +13.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:03, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Emotional Hedging

Roscommon · 18:15 · 8 runners · Other

THE MOVE

10/1 → 9/2

24 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: No
-35% better than SP · -6.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:03, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Noble Agenda

Roscommon · 18:15 · 8 runners · Other

THE MOVE

11/1 → 11/2

Still 11/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · BetTom · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet · 10 Bet

17 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +4.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:03, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Lars Soldier

Roscommon · 18:15 · 8 runners · Other

THE MOVE

16/1 → 13/2

25 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: No
-6% better than SP · -0.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:03, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Stooked

Roscommon · 18:45 · 15 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

11/4 → 5/2

Still 11/4 at 4 firms when alerted
William Hill · Bet365 · Matchbook · Smarkets

14 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 10/3 (4.40)
SP: 3.50
Beat SP: Yes
+26% better than SP · +5.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:48, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Bucaneer's Spirit

Roscommon · 17:10 · 10 runners · Other

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Unibet · Smarkets · Matchbook

22 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 7/1 (7.80)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +3.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:36, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Seven Nation Army

Roscommon · 18:15 · 8 runners · Other

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

20 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +15.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:27, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Sunny South West

Roscommon · 19:45 · 14 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 9 firms when alerted
William Hill · Bet365 · Boyle Sports · Unibet · BetTom · LiveScore Bet · Quinn Bet · Virgin Bet · 10 Bet

5 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +7.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:21, 18 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Contrary To Law

Roscommon · 19:15 · 14 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

4/1 → 7/2

Still 4/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · Coral · Ladbrokes · BetTom · BetWright · BresBet · Dragon Bet

14 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+11% better than SP · +2.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:51, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Hexagonal

Roscommon · 17:10 · 10 runners · Other

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

Still 16/1 at 2 firms when alerted
BetTom · 10 Bet

17 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+240% better than SP · +14.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:36, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Someday Somewhere

Roscommon · 17:45 · 12 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

6/1 → 11/2

Still 6/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Betfred · Bet365 · Unibet

19 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 3.12
Beat SP: Yes
+140% better than SP · +18.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:21, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

She's Ideal

Roscommon · 17:10 · 10 runners · Other

THE MOVE

2/1 → 7/4

5 firms had already cut to 7/4 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 7/4 (2.75)
SP: 2.25
Beat SP: Yes
+22% better than SP · +8.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:18, 18 Aug 2026

Flat

Darkdeserthighway

Roscommon · 17:10 · 10 runners · Other

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Unibet

8 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: No
-50% better than SP · -8.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:06, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Andaman Fifty

Roscommon · 18:45 · 15 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

15/2 → 6/1

Still 15/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Betfred · BetTom

18 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: No
-43% better than SP · -5.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:00, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Almeiyda

Roscommon · 18:45 · 15 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

5/2 → 9/4

Still 5/2 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · Unibet · William Hill · BetTom · 10 Bet

8 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 3.00
Beat SP: Yes
+17% better than SP · +4.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:00, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Cashel Queen

Roscommon · 17:45 · 12 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

Still 13/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Betfred · Bet365

15 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +7.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:48, 18 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Lady Plimsoll

Roscommon · 20:15 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Betfred · BetTom · BetWright

17 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+22% better than SP · +4.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:33, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Prince Of Peppard

Roscommon · 17:45 · 12 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · BetTom · 10 Bet

9 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: No
-25% better than SP · -4.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:24, 18 Aug 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Almazann

Roscommon · 19:45 · 14 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

9/4 → 2/1

Still 9/4 at 1 firm when alerted
Bet365

13 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/4 (3.25)
SP: 2.25
Beat SP: Yes
+44% better than SP · +13.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:15, 18 Aug 2026

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