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Newcastle (AW)

Every steam move alert fired at Newcastle (AW), timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 2 September 2026 · HorseWhale

All time
190
alerts
74%
beat SP
+3.3
avg probability points vs SP
FlatHANDICAP
Lady Delila
Newcastle (AW) · 17:45 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 11/2
Still 7/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
-35% better than SP · -4.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Heathers Feather
Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 6/1
24 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Risks
• Unproven at 5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: No
-42% better than SP · -6.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Papa Don't Preach
Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 10/3
Still 9/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
23 firms had already cut to 10/3 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Harry The Rogue
Newcastle (AW) · 16:15 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 5/1
25 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: No
-33% better than SP · -5.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Flying Fletcher
Newcastle (AW) · 16:15 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 10/3
Still 9/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Smarkets · Matchbook · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets
21 firms had already cut to 10/3 when alerted
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• Newcastle (AW). 1/12 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 11/2 (6.40)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: No
-2% better than SP · -0.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
River Jordan
Newcastle (AW) · 15:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · Paddy Power · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite
19 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 6.
Risks
• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 6/1 (6.80)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: No
-20% better than SP · -2.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Secret Rival
Newcastle (AW) · 15:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 7/2
Still 9/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Matchbook
22 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 3lb below career-high OR 62.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Liveadream
Newcastle (AW) · 15:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 10/1
24 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Book Of Life
Newcastle (AW) · 17:15 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/2 → 9/4
Still 5/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
17 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/4 (3.65)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+12% better than SP · +3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Havana Prince
Newcastle (AW) · 15:15 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 9/2
Still 13/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
23 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• Newcastle (AW). 1/2 at this course.
Risks
• Up 8lb. 2lb below career-high OR 76.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
Flat
Yordan
Newcastle (AW) · 14:45 · 10 runners · Other
THE MOVE
8/15 → 2/5
Still 8/15 at 3 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Smarkets · Matchbook
22 firms had already cut to 2/5 when alerted
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 8/15 (1.53)
SP: 1.15
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +21.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 2 Sept 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Operation Gimcrack
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 13/2
Still 7/1 at 6 firms when alerted
BetMGM · Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets
25 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 15/2 (8.40)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+29% better than SP · +3.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 20:28, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Little Mi Mi
Newcastle (AW) · 20:24 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · talkSPORT BET
25 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 11/2 (6.40)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+28% better than SP · +4.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 20:15, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Copper Knight
Newcastle (AW) · 20:24 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
22/1 → 18/1
Still 22/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
23 firms had already cut to 18/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 28/1 (28.00)
SP: 26.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 20:15, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
White Umbrella
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 11/1
Still 12/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
18 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 16/1 (16.50)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +1.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 19:09, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Forever Perfect
Newcastle (AW) · 18:19 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 11/1
Still 14/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
23 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 18/1 (19.50)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +2.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 18:15, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Gemini Star
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
23 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 12
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: No
-16% better than SP · -2.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 17:24, 20 Aug 2026
Flat
Rubyroo
Newcastle (AW) · 19:24 · 8 runners · Other
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
Still 15/2 at 15 firms when alerted
William Hill · Bet365 · Betfred · Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · Midnite · Paddy Power · Betano · Betfair Sportsbook · 10 Bet · BetTom · Quinn Bet · 7Bet · Dragon Bet
11 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+113% better than SP · +6.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 15:04, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Mount Ruapehu
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 11/2
Still 6/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
16 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 7/1 (7.80)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+56% better than SP · +7.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:25, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Star Material
Newcastle (AW) · 20:24 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
22/1 → 14/1
Still 22/1 at 1 firm when alerted
10 Bet
23 firms had already cut to 14/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 13
Alert price: 22/1 (23.00)
SP: 17.00
Beat SP: Yes
+35% better than SP · +1.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:18, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
True Promise
Newcastle (AW) · 20:24 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
22/1 → 16/1
25 firms had already cut to 16/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: Yes
+13% better than SP · +0.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:00, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Hickton
Newcastle (AW) · 18:19 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
22/1 → 16/1
Still 22/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
23 firms had already cut to 16/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 28/1 (30.00)
SP: 23.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +1.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:51, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Multaneighttothree
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 13/2
Still 8/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet Victor · Ladbrokes · Matchbook · Smarkets
20 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 9/1 (10.50)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+91% better than SP · +8.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:33, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Castan
Newcastle (AW) · 20:24 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 15/2
25 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: No
-6% better than SP · -0.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:15, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Casino Star
Newcastle (AW) · 19:54 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · BetTom · BetWright · Matchbook · Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+25% better than SP · +5.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:09, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Wait For It
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 12/1
Still 14/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 14
Alert price: 14/1 (16.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+23% better than SP · +1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:06, 20 Aug 2026
Flat
Queen's Hame
Newcastle (AW) · 18:54 · 9 runners · Other
THE MOVE
8/15 → 2/5
Still 8/15 at 3 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Smarkets · Matchbook
4 firms had already cut to 2/5 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 4/7 (1.56)
SP: 1.53
Beat SP: Yes
+2% better than SP · +1.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:57, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Star People
Newcastle (AW) · 19:54 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 5/1
18 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 2.75
Beat SP: Yes
+118% better than SP · +19.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:30, 20 Aug 2026
Flat
All I Know
Newcastle (AW) · 19:24 · 8 runners · Other
THE MOVE
14/1 → 11/1
Still 14/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Matchbook · Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 28/1 (28.00)
SP: 26.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:09, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Donald
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 10/1
Still 12/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Paddy Power
21 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+18% better than SP · +1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:09, 20 Aug 2026
Flat
Angel In My Heart
Newcastle (AW) · 19:24 · 8 runners · Other
THE MOVE
6/1 → 5/1
Still 6/1 at 8 firms when alerted
William Hill · Bet365 · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Midnite · Paddy Power
21 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 12/1 (13.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+125% better than SP · +9.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Influencer Man
Newcastle (AW) · 19:54 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/2 → 9/4
Still 5/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · Star Sports · Unibet · 10 Bet · 7Bet · BetTom
11 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
-30% better than SP · -8.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:00, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Buzz Box
Newcastle (AW) · 20:24 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 5/1
Still 6/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet
22 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: No
-11% better than SP · -1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:42, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Billy Bathgate
Newcastle (AW) · 18:19 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Unibet · BetTom
23 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +4.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:36, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Desert Master
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
16/1 → 12/1
22 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 17.00
Beat SP: No
-24% better than SP · -1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:21, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
This Moment
Newcastle (AW) · 19:54 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 4/1
Still 5/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · Unibet · BetTom · BetWright · 10 Bet
12 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: No
-8% better than SP · -1.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:06, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Asadjumeirah
Newcastle (AW) · 20:54 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 9/1
Still 12/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 14/1 (14.50)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+12% better than SP · +0.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:51, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Smart Vision
Newcastle (AW) · 20:24 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom
21 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 7/1 (7.80)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: No
-3% better than SP · -0.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 20 Aug 2026
Flat
Navertity
Newcastle (AW) · 18:54 · 9 runners · Other
THE MOVE
7/1 → 11/2
Still 7/1 at 3 firms when alerted
BetTom · Matchbook · Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:36, 20 Aug 2026
FlatHANDICAP
Niffler
Newcastle (AW) · 18:19 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/4 → 7/4
Still 9/4 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom
21 firms had already cut to 7/4 when alerted
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/4 (3.25)
SP: 2.62
Beat SP: Yes
+24% better than SP · +7.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:36, 20 Aug 2026
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