Carlisle

Every steam move alert fired at Carlisle, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 27 August 2026 · HorseWhale

All time

107

alerts

73%

beat SP

+4.3

avg probability points vs SP

FlatHANDICAP

Sanafi Zabeel

Carlisle · 14:00 · 8 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/2 → 2/1

Still 5/2 at 11 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Star Sports · Unibet · Smarkets · 10 Bet · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet

14 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 24lb. Career-high OR 68.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 11/4 (3.75)
SP: 2.88
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +8.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:48, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Kody B

Carlisle · 15:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

22/1 → 16/1

Still 22/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

24 firms had already cut to 16/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 25/1 (26.00)
SP: 17.00
Beat SP: Yes
+53% better than SP · +2.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:12, 27 Aug 2026

Flat

Sarasota Blue Blue

Carlisle · 14:30 · 11 runners · Other

THE MOVE

3/1 → 11/4

Still 3/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betano · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet · Smarkets · Matchbook

19 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 3.50
Beat SP: Yes
+14% better than SP · +3.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:09, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Royal Duke

Carlisle · 16:00 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

24 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:06, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Rikki Tiki Tavi

Carlisle · 15:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

Still 16/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook

25 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 18/1 (18.50)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+42% better than SP · +2.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:00, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Invincible Boy

Carlisle · 15:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

8/1 → 7/1

Still 8/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+13% better than SP · +1.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:00, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Town Queen

Carlisle · 15:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/2 → 9/4

Still 5/2 at 5 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets

18 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 11/4 (3.80)
SP: 2.88
Beat SP: Yes
+32% better than SP · +8.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:57, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Rogue Attraction

Carlisle · 15:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/4 → 5/2

Still 11/4 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · BetMGM · Star Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets

17 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 4.

• Carlisle. 1/3 at this course.

Risks

• Up 6lb. 4lb below career-high OR 86.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+7% better than SP · +1.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:57, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Harry Mole

Carlisle · 16:00 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/2 → 10/3

Still 7/2 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Star Sports · Unibet · Smarkets · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betano · BetTom

8 firms had already cut to 10/3 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+22% better than SP · +4.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:45, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Bincimbal

Carlisle · 15:00 · 5 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

3/1 → 11/4

Still 3/1 at 13 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · BetMGM · Star Sports · Unibet · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet · Smarkets

14 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +7.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:45, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Hill O Rue

Carlisle · 16:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

12/1 → 9/1

Still 12/1 at 2 firms when alerted
BetTom · Quinn Bet

17 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 6lb. 4lb below career-high OR 64.

• Unproven at 1m3f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+18% better than SP · +1.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:18, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Emerald Bay

Carlisle · 15:00 · 5 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

Still 13/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Unibet · Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+14% better than SP · +1.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:15, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Up The Jazz

Carlisle · 14:00 · 8 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 11/2

Still 6/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betano · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Midnite

22 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

Risks

• Up 29lb. 7lb below career-high OR 75.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+75% better than SP · +10.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:06, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Ten Clarets

Carlisle · 15:00 · 5 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/4 → 2/1

Still 9/4 at 3 firms when alerted
7Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets

21 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 9/4 (3.25)
SP: 3.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +2.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:06, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Annandale

Carlisle · 17:00 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betfred · William Hill · 7Bet · Betano · BetWright · BresBet · Dragon Bet

18 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.

Risks

• Up 10lb. 6lb below career-high OR 64.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+47% better than SP · +8.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:54, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Idyllic

Carlisle · 17:00 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/2 → 9/4

Still 5/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betano · BetTom · Matchbook

15 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: No
-12% better than SP · -3.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Go Vince Go

Carlisle · 15:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/2 → 9/2

25 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+22% better than SP · +4.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 27 Aug 2026

Flat

Prosperity Angel

Carlisle · 14:30 · 11 runners · Other

THE MOVE

11/2 → 9/2

20 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +4.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:33, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Taylormade Lad

Carlisle · 16:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 6 firms when alerted
William Hill · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Midnite · Quinn Bet

13 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

Why it rates

• Carlisle. 1/3 at this course.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 2.62
Beat SP: Yes
+110% better than SP · +20.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Kyber Crystal

Carlisle · 16:00 · 11 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

22/1 → 12/1

25 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+18% better than SP · +1.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Riddikulus

Carlisle · 16:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

4/1 → 10/3

Still 4/1 at 7 firms when alerted
William Hill · BetTom · LiveScore Bet · Matchbook · Midnite · Virgin Bet · Smarkets

16 firms had already cut to 10/3 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 1m3f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT

NON-RUNNER

Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Hansteen

Carlisle · 16:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/4 → 15/8

Still 9/4 at 4 firms when alerted
7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Midnite

18 firms had already cut to 15/8 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 9/4 (3.25)
SP: 3.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +2.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Off Spin

Carlisle · 16:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

Still 15/2 at 9 firms when alerted
William Hill · Bet365 · Smarkets · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · LiveScore Bet · Midnite · Virgin Bet

14 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 17/2 (9.50)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +2.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Dr Rio

Carlisle · 16:30 · 7 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/1 → 8/1

Still 10/1 at 3 firms when alerted
William Hill · BetTom · Midnite

17 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted

Why it rates

• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+83% better than SP · +7.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 27 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Blufferonthebus

Carlisle · 17:30 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

Still 16/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom · BetWright · Betano · talkSPORT BET · 10 Bet

20 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 20/1 (21.00)
SP: 21.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 14:37, 19 Aug 2026

Flat

Diamond New Bay

Carlisle · 14:05 · 7 runners · Other

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 4 firms when alerted
BetMGM · William Hill · Smarkets · Matchbook

8 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/2 (6.60)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+76% better than SP · +11.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:18, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Northern Tempest

Carlisle · 16:55 · 8 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

Still 11/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · BetTom · Betano · talkSPORT BET

20 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +2.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:30, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Count Palatine

Carlisle · 16:20 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

12/1 → 9/1

25 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: Yes
+5% better than SP · +0.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:09, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Between Me And U

Carlisle · 17:30 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

Still 16/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Betfred · Matchbook · Smarkets

19 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 18/1 (18.50)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+68% better than SP · +3.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:00, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAPMAIDEN

Supreme Dancer

Carlisle · 15:48 · 9 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

4/1 → 7/2

Still 4/1 at 10 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Bet365 · Boyle Sports · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · 7Bet · BetWright · Betano · talkSPORT BET

12 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/2 (5.30)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+22% better than SP · +4.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:54, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Misunderstood

Carlisle · 16:20 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/2 → 9/2

Still 11/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betfred · Star Sports · Unibet · BetWright · Betano · talkSPORT BET

16 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:39, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Golden Strike

Carlisle · 16:20 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betfred · Unibet · Matchbook · Betano · talkSPORT BET · Smarkets

9 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 5/1 (6.20)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+38% better than SP · +6.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:27, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Hares Bredth

Carlisle · 16:55 · 8 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet365 · BetMGM · Boyle Sports · Unibet · BetWright · Quinn Bet · Matchbook · Smarkets

19 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 3.50
Beat SP: Yes
+71% better than SP · +11.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:09, 19 Aug 2026

Flat

Green Area

Carlisle · 14:38 · 3 runners · Other

THE MOVE

11/4 → 9/4

Still 11/4 at 7 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · William Hill · BetTom · Matchbook · Smarkets

15 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/4 (3.75)
SP: 2.88
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +8.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:03, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Avatar Jet

Carlisle · 17:30 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

24 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: No
-13% better than SP · -1.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:42, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAPMAIDEN

Hey Havana

Carlisle · 15:48 · 9 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

5/2 → 9/4

Still 5/2 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betfred · Unibet · 7Bet · BetTom · Betano · Midnite · talkSPORT BET · 10 Bet

14 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 2.38
Beat SP: Yes
+47% better than SP · +13.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:18, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Native Instinct

Carlisle · 16:20 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

Still 13/2 at 1 firm when alerted
10 Bet

19 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+73% better than SP · +9.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:06, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Ephron

Carlisle · 17:30 · 9 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Betfred · Star Sports · Unibet · BetTom · Betano · BresBet · Dragon Bet · 10 Bet

15 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Kilmac Air

Carlisle · 16:55 · 8 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Star Sports · Unibet

24 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: No
-26% better than SP · -3.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 19 Aug 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Son

Carlisle · 16:20 · 10 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/2 → 4/1

Still 9/2 at 11 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Coral · Ladbrokes · Star Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom · BetWright · Betano · talkSPORT BET · 10 Bet

16 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.70)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+32% better than SP · +5.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:57, 19 Aug 2026

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