HorseWhaleHorseWhale

Receipts

Every alert we have ever sent, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP. Including the ones that didn't come off.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 16 September 2026 · HorseWhale

8201 alerts since 9 August 2026 · avg +3.6 probability points vs SP · 72% beat SP
Probability points measure how much better a price was than SP in terms of the chance it implies, so a move at 2/1 and a move at 50/1 are measured on the same scale.
Current detection ruleset in force since 9 August 2026. Alerts sent under earlier rules remain in the archive and are excluded from these figures.

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⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Point of Contact
Yarmouth · 16:12 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.
Previously on record
Alerted 3 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 14/1 (15.50)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+41% better than SP · +2.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:51, 16 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Evelyn's Phoenix
Beverley · 17:50 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 5/1
Still 11/2 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power · Matchbook
11 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 31 Aug · placed
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +4.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:45, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPHurdleHANDICAP
Scots Poet
Kelso · 16:25 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Unibet · 10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook
13 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• Kelso. 1/2 at this course.
Risks
• Unproven at 2m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 28 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +5.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:42, 16 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatMAIDEN
Daddy Star
Yarmouth · 15:06 · 7 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Paddy Power
22 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +7.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:33, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPChaseHANDICAP
Conquer The Breeze
Kelso · 18:25 · 3 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/11 → 4/5
Still 10/11 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook
4 firms had already cut to 4/5 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 2
Alert price: 10/11 (1.92)
SP: 2.00
Beat SP: No
-4% better than SP · -2.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:30, 16 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Pangbourne
Sandown · 17:10 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/1 → 15/2
24 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 28 Aug · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: No
-6% better than SP · -0.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:30, 16 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Asset
Sandown · 16:40 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
17/2 → 13/2
Still 17/2 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom
23 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 25% last 14 days.
Risks
• Up 6lb. Career-high OR 79.
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · placed
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 17/2 (9.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+90% better than SP · +9.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:30, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Oh Yes You Do
Sandown · 16:05 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 10/3
Still 4/1 at 10 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Boyle Sports · Smarkets · 10 Bet · 7Bet · Betano · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Midnite
11 firms had already cut to 10/3 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 28 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 4/1 (5.10)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +5.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:21, 16 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMHurdleHANDICAP
Hijo de La Luna
Kelso · 16:25 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 7/1
Still 8/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 16lb. 11lb below career-high OR 97.
• Unproven at 2m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 17/2 (9.50)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: No
-21% better than SP · -2.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:21, 16 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Willow Wood
Yarmouth · 16:45 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 9/2
Still 6/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Unibet · Star Sports · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets
19 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m3½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 7 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+25% better than SP · +3.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:18, 16 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Cadreville
Clonmel · 17:05 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 6/1
23 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time p.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +3.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:18, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Hierax
Sandown · 14:20 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom
23 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 28% last 14 days.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +1.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:18, 16 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Great Blasket
Beverley · 14:08 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
25 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 25 Aug · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+40% better than SP · +5.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:18, 16 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Deluded
Yarmouth · 13:56 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/1 → 9/1
Still 10/1 at 11 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Bet365 · Smarkets · Matchbook · BetTom · 7Bet · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite
15 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time p.
Risks
• Up 6lb. 2lb below career-high OR 77.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 14/1 (14.50)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: Yes
+61% better than SP · +4.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:15, 16 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Raspoutine
Sandown · 16:40 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 10/1
Still 14/1 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom
23 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
SP: 19.00
Beat SP: No
-21% better than SP · -1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:15, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Enoch
Yarmouth · 16:12 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/5 → 10/11
Still 6/5 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
5 firms had already cut to 10/11 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 28% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 27 Aug · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 6/5 (2.18)
SP: 1.91
Beat SP: Yes
+14% better than SP · +6.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:15, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Kakori
Clonmel · 16:35 · 7 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
7/4 → 6/4
Still 7/4 at 2 firms when alerted
BetTom · Hollywood Bets
6 firms had already cut to 6/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 10 Sept · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 7/4 (2.75)
SP: 2.00
Beat SP: Yes
+38% better than SP · +13.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:12, 16 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Call To Action
Beverley · 16:18 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 6 firms when alerted
Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets
23 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 8/1 (8.80)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+47% better than SP · +5.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:12, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Shanala
Clonmel · 16:00 · 8 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
5/4 → 1/1
Still 5/4 at 5 firms when alerted
BetMGM · Unibet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets
16 firms had already cut to 1/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/4 (2.25)
SP: 1.73
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +13.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:09, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPHurdle
Hoe Joly Smoke
Kelso · 16:55 · 2 runners · Other
THE MOVE
1/2 → 1/3
Still 1/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Unibet · Hollywood Bets · 10 Bet · Betano · BetTom · BetWright
18 firms had already cut to 1/3 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 26% last 14 days.
Risks
• Up 8lb. 9lb below career-high OR 131.
• Unproven at 2m5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 4 Sept · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 2
Alert price: 8/15 (1.53)
SP: 1.44
Beat SP: Yes
+6% better than SP · +4.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:06, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatListed
Nahraan
Sandown · 15:30 · 10 runners · Listed
THE MOVE
5/1 → 4/1
Still 5/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
17 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 28% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+9% better than SP · +1.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 16 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Secret Handsheikh
Sandown · 13:45 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
16/1 → 12/1
Still 16/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 24 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 18/1 (20.00)
SP: 17.00
Beat SP: Yes
+18% better than SP · +0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Good Earth
Sandown · 13:45 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 10/3
Still 4/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Unibet · Smarkets · 10 Bet · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright
16 firms had already cut to 10/3 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time p.
Previously on record
Alerted 28 Aug · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/2 (5.30)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+32% better than SP · +6.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Hostelry
Beverley · 17:50 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 9 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · Unibet · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Quinn Bet
8 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 24 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: No
-31% better than SP · -5.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 16 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Zoustar Dreams
Sandown · 13:45 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 10 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet365 · Star Sports · Smarkets · Matchbook · 10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Midnite
16 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+29% better than SP · +3.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 16 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Mare Crisium
Clonmel · 17:05 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/2 → 3/1
Still 7/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Coral · Matchbook · Smarkets
15 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 7lb. 8lb below career-high OR 65.
Previously on record
Alerted 15 Aug · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 4/1 (5.20)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: No
-5% better than SP · -1.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Love You More
Beverley · 17:20 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook
12 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 16 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 9/2 (5.40)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +3.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:57, 16 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Medieval Night
Clonmel · 18:10 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Smarkets · Matchbook · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet
14 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 1 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 9/2 (5.30)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: No
-24% better than SP · -4.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:57, 16 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Thunderous Love
Yarmouth · 17:15 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 6/1
Still 13/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
23 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 31 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 15/2 (8.40)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: No
-16% better than SP · -1.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:57, 16 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Ella's Gold
Clonmel · 17:05 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
18 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 13lb. 3lb below career-high OR 62.
Previously on record
Alerted 8 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 13/2 (7.60)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +3.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:51, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Gallo Dell Cielo
Clonmel · 19:13 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/4 → 2/1
Still 9/4 at 3 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Matchbook · Smarkets
8 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 31lb. 12lb below career-high OR 72.
• Unproven at 2m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 15 Aug · won
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/2 (3.40)
SP: 1.83
Beat SP: Yes
+86% better than SP · +25.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:45, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Massimo Blue
Yarmouth · 13:56 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/4 → 2/1
Still 9/4 at 11 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Bet365 · Betfred · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Quinn Bet
16 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 27 Aug · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 3/1 (3.95)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+22% better than SP · +5.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:45, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Rich Belief
Clonmel · 19:13 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/2 → 3/1
Still 7/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Hollywood Bets
14 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 50% last 14 days.
Risks
• Up 9lb. 55lb below career-high OR 117.
• Unproven at 2m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 6 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 7/2 (4.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:45, 16 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatMAIDEN
Kompozitor
Beverley · 15:48 · 13 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
11/1 → 17/2
Still 11/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Quinn Bet
21 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Unproven at 5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 23.00
Beat SP: No
-48% better than SP · -4.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:42, 16 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Startled Lady
Yarmouth · 17:15 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 7/1
Still 8/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Paddy Power · Smarkets
23 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Yarmouth. 1/3 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: No
-5% better than SP · -0.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:42, 16 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Rogue Millions
Yarmouth · 16:12 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 12/1
25 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 3.
Risks
• Up 8lb. 4lb below career-high OR 96.
• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: No
-13% better than SP · -1.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:39, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Faith In Florence
Yarmouth · 14:31 · 8 runners · Other
THE MOVE
10/3 → 11/4
Still 10/3 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power
15 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 4.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.40)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+25% better than SP · +4.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:39, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Marhaba Athmani
Yarmouth · 15:06 · 7 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
3/1 → 11/4
Still 3/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · Hollywood Bets
14 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+7% better than SP · +1.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:36, 16 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Ardnamurchan
Sandown · 13:45 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• Trainer in form. 25% last 14 days.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 7/1 (8.20)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: No
-25% better than SP · -3.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:36, 16 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Femme Beauty
Clonmel · 17:35 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
18 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 5/1 (5.80)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+16% better than SP · +2.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:36, 16 Sept 2026
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How these receipts are graded

Each alert is graded on price captured, not on win or loss. Once the race is run, the alerted price is compared against the official Starting Price and the Betfair Starting Price. A receipt passes when the alerted price beat SP. The result of the race — won, placed, unplaced — is shown as a secondary detail on every card.

Nothing on this page is edited after publication. Alerts that did not beat SP stay up exactly as alerts that did. Full grading methodology →

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