HorseWhaleHorseWhale

Receipts

Every alert we have ever sent, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP. Including the ones that didn't come off.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 21 September 2026 · HorseWhale

7723 alerts since 9 August 2026 · avg +3.6 probability points vs SP · 72% beat SP
Probability points measure how much better a price was than SP in terms of the chance it implies, so a move at 2/1 and a move at 50/1 are measured on the same scale.
Current detection ruleset in force since 9 August 2026. Alerts sent under earlier rules remain in the archive and are excluded from these figures.

Browse the archive

🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Chesneys Charm
Wolverhampton (AW) · 16:00 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 8 firms when alerted
Betfred · Star Sports · Unibet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power · 10 Bet
16 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 9 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: No
-21% better than SP · -3.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
The Hare Rail
Wolverhampton (AW) · 19:12 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Matchbook
19 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 33% last 14 days.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+39% better than SP · +6.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Dawnmore
Listowel · 13:23 · 11 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
15/8 → 13/8
Still 15/8 at 7 firms when alerted
William Hill · Ladbrokes · Smarkets · Matchbook · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
4 firms had already cut to 13/8 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 17 Sept · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 9/4 (3.25)
SP: 2.20
Beat SP: Yes
+48% better than SP · +14.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 21 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Dragon Of Malta
Listowel · 14:55 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
23 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Listowel. 2/3 at this course.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 18 Aug · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 15/2 (8.40)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+40% better than SP · +4.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 21 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Deralo Ir
Listowel · 17:12 · 15 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 10/1
Still 14/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
21 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 18/1 (19.00)
SP: 17.00
Beat SP: Yes
+12% better than SP · +0.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Hostelry
Hamilton · 13:43 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
11 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 16 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 9/2 (5.60)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+2% better than SP · +0.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 21 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatMAIDEN
Reece's Call
Ffos Las · 14:38 · 6 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
25/1 → 18/1
24 firms had already cut to 18/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 18/1 (19.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+58% better than SP · +3.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Bay of Myths
Ffos Las · 15:44 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 13/2
Still 8/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+64% better than SP · +7.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatListed
Livenka
Fairyhouse · 17:57 · 10 runners · Listed
THE MOVE
2/1 → 7/4
Still 2/1 at 9 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · Matchbook · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets · 10 Bet
7 firms had already cut to 7/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Fairyhouse. 1/1 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 29 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 85/40 (3.15)
SP: 2.00
Beat SP: Yes
+57% better than SP · +18.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:15, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Pink Venom
Fairyhouse · 18:27 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/2 → 3/1
Still 7/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power · Smarkets
13 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 7/2 (4.60)
SP: 1.80
Beat SP: Yes
+156% better than SP · +33.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:12, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Lovely Dark Angel
Leicester · 14:31 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
2/1 → 7/4
Still 2/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · William Hill · Matchbook · 7Bet · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets
5 firms had already cut to 7/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 26 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 5/2 (3.60)
SP: 3.00
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +5.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:12, 21 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
El Lambo
Wolverhampton (AW) · 17:07 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
20 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +8.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:09, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Shirzan
Listowel · 16:40 · 11 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · Midnite
10 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 20 Sept · placed
RESULT
NON-RUNNER
Alert price: 6/1 (6.80)
Permanent record · Fired 08:06, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Lady of Hay
Wolverhampton (AW) · 17:07 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Star Sports · William Hill · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Smarkets
18 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.
Previously on record
Alerted 7 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: No
-17% better than SP · -3.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:00, 21 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatMAIDEN
Nemorino
Listowel · 16:40 · 11 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
14/1 → 11/1
19 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+167% better than SP · +13.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:57, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Trust Sergei
Wolverhampton (AW) · 20:12 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · 7Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook
17 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Wolverhampton (AW). 2/10 at this course.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 4lb below career-high OR 60.
Previously on record
Alerted 15 Sept · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+11% better than SP · +2.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:57, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Jackson Street
Wolverhampton (AW) · 18:42 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
20 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 10 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: No
-27% better than SP · -3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:54, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Mumayaz
Leicester · 16:12 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 9/2
Still 11/2 at 3 firms when alerted
William Hill · Matchbook · Hollywood Bets
21 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Leicester. 1/3 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 8 Sept · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/2 (6.60)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+2% better than SP · +0.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:54, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Rua Mor
Wolverhampton (AW) · 19:12 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 15/2
Still 9/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Matchbook · 7Bet · BetTom · Midnite · Smarkets
20 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 9/1 (10.50)
SP: 29.00
Beat SP: No
-64% better than SP · -6.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:54, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Azure Zain
Hamilton · 16:30 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 8/1
Still 9/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 10/1 (11.50)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+64% better than SP · +5.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:51, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatMAIDEN
Reichenbach Falls
Wolverhampton (AW) · 17:42 · 11 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
5/2 → 9/4
Still 5/2 at 12 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · Betfred · 7Bet · BetWright · Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
6 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 11/4 (3.75)
SP: 3.50
Beat SP: Yes
+7% better than SP · +1.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:51, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Jack Langley
Wolverhampton (AW) · 16:35 · 5 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/8 → 13/8
Still 15/8 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
5 firms had already cut to 13/8 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 33% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 2m½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 20 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 15/8 (2.88)
SP: 2.20
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +10.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:51, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Calef
Wolverhampton (AW) · 17:07 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 3/1
Still 10/3 at 15 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Coral · Ladbrokes · Matchbook · Smarkets · 7Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · Dragon Bet · Paddy Power · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Quinn Bet
6 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 7 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 4/1 (5.10)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: No
-22% better than SP · -4.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:48, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatMAIDEN
Divine Legend
Fairyhouse · 16:25 · 17 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 5 firms when alerted
BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
11 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · placed
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+54% better than SP · +10.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:48, 21 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Time And Effort
Wolverhampton (AW) · 17:07 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 10/1
Still 12/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
23 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 7 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+25% better than SP · +1.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:48, 21 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Bad Boy Rizz
Fairyhouse · 18:57 · 17 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · Matchbook · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Midnite
10 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time tb.
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 14
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
-46% better than SP · -6.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:48, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Call Time
Ffos Las · 15:09 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · Boyle Sports · William Hill · 7Bet · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
6 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 3.00
Beat SP: Yes
+83% better than SP · +15.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:48, 21 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Agitator
Leicester · 13:59 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 15/2
Still 9/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 6lb. 2lb below career-high OR 76.
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+43% better than SP · +4.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 21 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Humble Spark
Hamilton · 14:47 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 5/1
Still 6/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 14lb. 10lb below career-high OR 85.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+40% better than SP · +5.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Mrs Blue
Hamilton · 14:15 · 5 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
11/4 → 5/2
Still 11/4 at 7 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · William Hill · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets · Matchbook · BetTom · Paddy Power
20 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 29 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 2.50
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +15.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 21 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Ottawa
Hamilton · 17:02 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 7/1
Still 9/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Boyle Sports
23 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 6 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: No
-9% better than SP · -0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 21 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Ridger
Leicester · 17:17 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 11 firms when alerted
Betfred · Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Midnite
12 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 27 Aug · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+75% better than SP · +10.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 21 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Troublesome Guest
Leicester · 14:31 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
16/1 → 12/1
Still 16/1 at 2 firms when alerted
BetTom · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 6lb. 4lb below career-high OR 78.
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Aug · lost
RESULT
NON-RUNNER
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
Permanent record · Fired 07:39, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Aljoon
Wolverhampton (AW) · 17:42 · 11 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
9/4 → 15/8
Still 9/4 at 11 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · Unibet · William Hill · BetWright · 7Bet · BetTom · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Quinn Bet
10 firms had already cut to 15/8 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 13 Aug · placed
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +2.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:39, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Three No Trumps
Wolverhampton (AW) · 19:12 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
15 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 7lb. 2lb below career-high OR 72.
RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: No
-21% better than SP · -2.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:36, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Faster Bee
Wolverhampton (AW) · 18:12 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 8/1
Still 9/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Wolverhampton (AW). 2/10 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 9/1 (10.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+75% better than SP · +7.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:36, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Another Encore
Leicester · 13:59 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 11/4
Still 10/3 at 9 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Star Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets · BetWright · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
13 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 5.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 4/1 (4.80)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+48% better than SP · +9.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:36, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Ashen
Hamilton · 15:55 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/2 → 3/1
20 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 7lb below career-high OR 74.
• Unproven at 5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 21 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: No
-8% better than SP · -1.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:36, 21 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Bearin Up
Leicester · 16:47 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet365 · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet · Matchbook · Smarkets
18 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 11lb. 1lb below career-high OR 78.
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +8.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:33, 21 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Aerial Silk
Ffos Las · 16:19 · 4 runners · Other
THE MOVE
6/4 → 5/4
Still 6/4 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet365 · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets
10 firms had already cut to 5/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Heavy vs Good. First run on this going.
• Unproven at 7½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 6/4 (2.50)
SP: 2.50
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:33, 21 Sept 2026
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How these receipts are graded

Each alert is graded on price captured, not on win or loss. Once the race is run, the alerted price is compared against the official Starting Price and the Betfair Starting Price. A receipt passes when the alerted price beat SP. The result of the race — won, placed, unplaced — is shown as a secondary detail on every card.

Nothing on this page is edited after publication. Alerts that did not beat SP stay up exactly as alerts that did. Full grading methodology →

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