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Newcastle (AW)

Every steam move alert fired at Newcastle (AW), timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 19 September 2026 · HorseWhale

All time
190
alerts
74%
beat SP
+3.3
avg probability points vs SP
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/33/1
Still 10/3 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · Matchbook · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet · BetWright
11 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 12 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 7/2 (4.70)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: No
-57% better than SP · -12.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 10 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
11/45/2
Still 11/4 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · 7Bet · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
17 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/24/1
Still 9/2 at 10 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · Smarkets · Matchbook · 7Bet · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
5 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 6.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 8lb below career-high OR 73.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: No
-25% better than SP · -4.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 18:39, 5 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/115/2
Still 9/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/1 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 11 Aug · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 10/1 (11.50)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+15% better than SP · +1.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 17:54, 5 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlat
Newcastle (AW) · 17:57 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
4/17/2
Still 4/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Betfred · Unibet · 10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
11 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 4/1 (5.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 16:39, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/19/2
Still 5/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Star Sports · Unibet · 10 Bet
7 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 14 Aug · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +5.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 15:15, 5 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/17/2
Still 4/1 at 10 firms when alerted
Betfred · Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Quinn Bet · Virgin Bet
4 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 7 Aug · won
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 9/2 (5.40)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +3.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 14:33, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlat
Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 9 runners · Other
THE MOVE
11/25/1
Still 11/2 at 5 firms when alerted
Unibet · William Hill · Matchbook · LiveScore Bet · Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 11/2 (6.60)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: No
-6% better than SP · -0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:24, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/16/1
20 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 6/1 (6.90)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+38% better than SP · +5.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:24, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
17/215/2
Still 17/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Smarkets · Matchbook
20 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 9/1 (10.50)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: No
-5% better than SP · -0.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:00, 5 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
17/215/2
Still 17/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Smarkets
24 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/8 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 17/2 (9.60)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+37% better than SP · +3.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:24, 5 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/19/1
Still 12/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Betfred · Unibet
21 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 3/10 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+53% better than SP · +4.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:24, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 9 runners · Other
THE MOVE
9/42/1
Still 9/4 at 6 firms when alerted
Betfred · Star Sports · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · Quinn Bet
11 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 21 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 5/2 (3.40)
SP: 3.50
Beat SP: No
-3% better than SP · -0.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:54, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/15/1
Still 6/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Unibet
24 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 4.
Risks
• Up 6lb. 3lb below career-high OR 82.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+17% better than SP · +2.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:39, 5 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/19/1
Still 12/1 at 2 firms when alerted
BetTom · BetWright
23 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/3 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:54, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/111/2
23 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 6.
• Newcastle (AW). 5/12 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 21 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+44% better than SP · +6.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:51, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/29/4
Still 5/2 at 12 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · BetMGM · Unibet · BetTom · Midnite · Smarkets · 10 Bet · 7Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
14 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 4.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 6lb below career-high OR 90.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/4 (3.75)
SP: 2.88
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +8.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:36, 5 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/15/1
Still 7/1 at 3 firms when alerted
10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright
22 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 2/6 at this course.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +3.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 5 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/24/1
Still 11/2 at 3 firms when alerted
10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright
22 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 6lb. 10lb below career-high OR 80.
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +7.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 5 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
16/111/1
Still 16/1 at 3 firms when alerted
10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright
22 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 29.00
Beat SP: No
-41% better than SP · -2.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/19/1
Still 12/1 at 2 firms when alerted
10 Bet · BetTom
22 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/3 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:03, 5 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
18/112/1
25 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: Yes
+37% better than SP · +2.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:00, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/17/1
Still 8/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Quinn Bet
22 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 8/1 (9.20)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:36, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/22/1
Still 5/2 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · BetMGM · 10 Bet · 7Bet · BetTom · Quinn Bet
15 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 2.50
Beat SP: Yes
+40% better than SP · +11.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:21, 5 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlat
Newcastle (AW) · 17:57 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
5/19/2
Still 5/1 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Unibet · 10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Matchbook · Midnite · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
16 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+18% better than SP · +2.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:15, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/14/1
Still 5/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Bet365
22 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/4 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:15, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Newcastle (AW) · 17:57 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
5/29/4
Still 5/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · William Hill · Matchbook · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power · Smarkets
16 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 11/4 (3.80)
SP: 2.38
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +15.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:57, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/19/1
23 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/8 at this course.
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: No
-33% better than SP · -3.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:57, 5 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/117/2
Still 10/1 at 2 firms when alerted
BetTom · Matchbook
20 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+118% better than SP · +9.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:57, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 4 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/18/1
Still 9/1 at 6 firms when alerted
10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
21 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:54, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/24/1
Still 9/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Star Sports · Unibet · William Hill · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets · Midnite
6 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/1 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 15 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 5/1 (5.80)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+29% better than SP · +5.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:48, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/16/1
Still 7/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Paddy Power
15 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/7 at this course.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +7.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/45/2
Still 11/4 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Smarkets · Matchbook
10 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/4 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · won
RESULT
NON-RUNNER
Alert price: 3/1 (3.95)
Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 9 runners · Other
THE MOVE
4/17/2
Still 4/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Betfred · Coral · Ladbrokes · Matchbook · Smarkets
9 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 4/1 (5.10)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: No
-15% better than SP · -2.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/33/1
21 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: No
-8% better than SP · -1.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 9 runners · Other
THE MOVE
3/111/4
Still 3/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Unibet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · 10 Bet
11 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 13 Aug · won
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 3/1 (4.00)
SP: 2.10
Beat SP: Yes
+90% better than SP · +22.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 5 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Newcastle (AW) · 17:57 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
11/45/2
Still 11/4 at 3 firms when alerted
Betfred · William Hill · Smarkets
20 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 3/1 (3.95)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: No
-12% better than SP · -3.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 5 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/115/2
Still 9/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Bet365
23 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 1 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+54% better than SP · +5.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:42, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/110/1
Still 11/1 at 10 firms when alerted
Betfred · Star Sports · Bet365 · Boyle Sports · Betfair Sportsbook · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
15 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/9 at this course.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 1lb below career-high OR 70.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 19.00
Beat SP: No
-32% better than SP · -2.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:36, 5 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/18/1
23 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+13% better than SP · +1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:33, 5 Sept 2026
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