Navan

Every steam move alert fired at Navan, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 2 September 2026 · HorseWhale

All time

169

alerts

77%

beat SP

+3.6

avg probability points vs SP

FlatHANDICAP

Virgil Tibbs

Navan · 18:10 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

14/1 → 10/1

Still 14/1 at 2 firms when alerted
BresBet · Hollywood Bets

22 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+15% better than SP · +1.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 14:01, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Prairie Girl

Navan · 16:38 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 11/2

Still 6/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BresBet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite

21 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

Risks

• Up 11lb. 3lb below career-high OR 86.

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 7/1 (8.20)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+17% better than SP · +2.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:46, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Amerilis

Navan · 16:38 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

Still 13/2 at 6 firms when alerted
William Hill · Smarkets · Matchbook · BetWright · BresBet · Hollywood Bets

20 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 7/1 (8.20)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+9% better than SP · +1.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:43, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Gotta Catch'em All

Navan · 16:38 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 5 firms when alerted
William Hill · Matchbook · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets

19 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Why it rates

• Navan. 1/4 at this course.

Risks

• Up 9lb. Career-high OR 76.

• Unproven at 5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +4.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 13:40, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Only One Scobie

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

14/1 → 10/1

Still 14/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Unibet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Dragon Bet

15 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 14
Alert price: 18/1 (19.00)
SP: 21.00
Beat SP: No
-10% better than SP · -0.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:52, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Hygge

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

16/1 → 11/1

19 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted

RESULT

NON-RUNNER

Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)

Permanent record · Fired 12:37, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

No More Porter

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/1 → 15/2

Still 9/1 at 5 firms when alerted
BetMGM · Matchbook · Smarkets · BresBet · Dragon Bet

19 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted

Risks

• Up 8lb. 9lb below career-high OR 83.

RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 11/1 (12.50)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: Yes
+32% better than SP · +2.5 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:37, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Near Perfection

Navan · 19:40 · 21 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

28/1 → 18/1

Still 28/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 18/1 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 17
Alert price: 28/1 (29.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+142% better than SP · +4.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:37, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Anvika

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

14/1 → 11/1

Still 14/1 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Unibet · Hollywood Bets · Betano · BetTom · BetWright · BresBet · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet

16 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 16/1 (17.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+70% better than SP · +4.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:13, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Harana

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/1 → 8/1

Still 10/1 at 2 firms when alerted
BresBet · Matchbook

19 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 8lb. 2lb below career-high OR 81.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: Yes
+22% better than SP · +2.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:13, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Marmeladova

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

9/1 → 7/1

Still 9/1 at 7 firms when alerted
BetWright · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet · Matchbook · BresBet · Smarkets

20 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 12
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+47% better than SP · +4.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 12:04, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Frank Pickle

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

10/1 → 8/1

Still 10/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Unibet · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · BresBet · Hollywood Bets

17 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+9% better than SP · +0.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:43, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Wild Berries

Navan · 18:10 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

40/1 → 25/1

Still 40/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · BetTom · BetWright · BresBet

22 firms had already cut to 25/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 50/1 (51.00)
SP: 23.00
Beat SP: Yes
+122% better than SP · +2.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:31, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Let's Smash It

Navan · 17:40 · 13 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

9/4 → 7/4

Still 9/4 at 4 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · BetWright · Hollywood Bets

13 firms had already cut to 7/4 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 9/4 (3.35)
SP: 2.62
Beat SP: Yes
+28% better than SP · +8.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:28, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Perfect Judgement

Navan · 18:10 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 14 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · William Hill · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · BresBet · Dragon Bet · LiveScore Bet · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet · Virgin Bet

8 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: No
-33% better than SP · -5.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:13, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Duchess Anne

Navan · 18:10 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/2 → 3/1

Still 7/2 at 9 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Star Sports · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · LiveScore Bet · Paddy Power · Virgin Bet

8 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 7/2 (4.50)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: No
-18% better than SP · -4.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 11:13, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Tariff

Navan · 18:40 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

25/1 → 16/1

Still 25/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Smarkets

24 firms had already cut to 16/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 66/1 (60.00)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: Yes
+300% better than SP · +5.0 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:55, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Saxony Charms

Navan · 19:40 · 21 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

7/1 → 6/1

Still 7/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Hollywood Bets · BresBet

22 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 4
Alert price: 8/1 (9.20)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+84% better than SP · +9.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:52, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Borora Aura

Navan · 18:40 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

17/2 → 7/1

Still 17/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

18 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 6lb. 1lb below career-high OR 52.

RESULT

NON-RUNNER

Alert price: 17/2 (9.50)

Permanent record · Fired 10:37, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Cannonball Queen

Navan · 18:10 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

Still 11/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

22 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: Yes
+26% better than SP · +2.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:16, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Cala Gracioneta

Navan · 17:08 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

Still 15/2 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Unibet · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power

21 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

Risks

• Up 8lb. 5lb below career-high OR 64.

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 8/1 (8.80)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+47% better than SP · +5.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:16, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Lady Romagna

Navan · 16:07 · 8 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

12/1 → 17/2

24 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 5f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 17/2 (9.50)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
-27% better than SP · -2.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:13, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Chant d'Or

Navan · 18:40 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 17/2

Still 11/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Betfred · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets

18 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +2.8 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:10, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Shanala

Navan · 19:40 · 21 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

14/1 → 10/1

Still 14/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Betfred · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets

20 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+200% better than SP · +13.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:07, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Liberated Light

Navan · 17:08 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

22/1 → 16/1

Still 22/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 16/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 22/1 (23.00)
SP: 29.00
Beat SP: No
-21% better than SP · -0.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:07, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Halon Bay

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

40/1 → 25/1

Still 40/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

24 firms had already cut to 25/1 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 13
Alert price: 50/1 (51.00)
SP: 26.00
Beat SP: Yes
+96% better than SP · +1.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 10:07, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Zaraahmando

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

13/2 → 11/2

Still 13/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · 10 Bet · Hollywood Bets

20 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 7/1 (7.80)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+42% better than SP · +5.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:43, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Moyassr

Navan · 18:40 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

6/1 → 5/1

Still 6/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Paddy Power · Smarkets

18 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 10lb. 17lb below career-high OR 77.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+56% better than SP · +7.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:31, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Shadow Of The Moon

Navan · 16:38 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

16/1 → 12/1

Still 16/1 at 13 firms when alerted
Bet Victor · Star Sports · Unibet · William Hill · Matchbook · 10 Bet · Betano · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Smarkets

15 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 11lb. 6lb below career-high OR 80.

RESULT

NON-RUNNER

Alert price: 18/1 (18.50)

Permanent record · Fired 09:31, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Lamar Valley

Navan · 19:40 · 21 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

80/1 → 33/1

Still 80/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets

23 firms had already cut to 33/1 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 80/1 (81.00)
SP: 101.00
Beat SP: No
-20% better than SP · -0.2 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:25, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Best Love

Navan · 16:07 · 8 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

5/1 → 4/1

Still 5/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Unibet · 10 Bet · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet

14 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+33% better than SP · +5.6 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:22, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Concaire

Navan · 18:10 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

7/1 → 6/1

Still 7/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Hollywood Bets

24 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 4
Alert price: 17/2 (9.60)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+37% better than SP · +3.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 09:01, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Black Heather

Navan · 17:08 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

33/1 → 20/1

Still 33/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets

23 firms had already cut to 20/1 when alerted

Risks

• Up 30lb. 47lb below career-high OR 122.

• Unproven at 2m. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 33/1 (34.00)
SP: 26.00
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +0.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:58, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Cashel Blue

Navan · 16:38 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

28/1 → 20/1

23 firms had already cut to 20/1 when alerted

RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 20/1 (21.00)
SP: 17.00
Beat SP: Yes
+24% better than SP · +1.1 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:27, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Happy Henry

Navan · 16:38 · 16 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

11/1 → 9/1

25 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted

Why it rates

• Navan. 1/5 at this course.

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: No
-9% better than SP · -0.9 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:24, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Daler

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

5/1 → 9/2

Still 5/1 at 10 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · Star Sports · Matchbook · BetTom · BetWright · BresBet · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets

12 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 11/2 (6.60)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: No
-18% better than SP · -2.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:18, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Annie Batt

Navan · 16:07 · 8 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

5/2 → 9/4

Still 5/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · Paddy Power

12 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted

RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 3/1 (3.95)
SP: 2.38
Beat SP: Yes
+66% better than SP · +16.7 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 08:15, 2 Sept 2026

FlatHANDICAP

Morehampton

Navan · 19:10 · 15 runners · Handicap

THE MOVE

15/2 → 13/2

Still 15/2 at 2 firms when alerted
BetWright · Hollywood Bets

22 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted

RESULT

NON-RUNNER

Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)

Permanent record · Fired 08:12, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Elusive Path

Navan · 17:40 · 13 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

4/1 → 7/2

Still 4/1 at 8 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Bet Victor · Betano · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · BetTom · BetWright · Smarkets

15 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted

RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +3.3 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:51, 2 Sept 2026

FlatMAIDEN

Fairylike

Navan · 19:40 · 21 runners · Maiden

THE MOVE

5/2 → 9/4

Still 5/2 at 10 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Quinn Bet

12 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted

Risks

• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.

RESULT
LOST · finished 15
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: No
-36% better than SP · -10.4 probability points

Permanent record · Fired 07:48, 2 Sept 2026

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