HorseWhaleHorseWhale

Receipts

Every alert we have ever sent, timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP. Including the ones that didn't come off.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 15 September 2026 · HorseWhale

8224 alerts since 9 August 2026 · avg +3.6 probability points vs SP · 72% beat SP
Probability points measure how much better a price was than SP in terms of the chance it implies, so a move at 2/1 and a move at 50/1 are measured on the same scale.
Current detection ruleset in force since 9 August 2026. Alerts sent under earlier rules remain in the archive and are excluded from these figures.

Browse the archive

⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Pol Roger
Redcar · 15:53 · 7 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
16/1 → 12/1
Still 16/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
18 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 8 Aug · won
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 18/1 (18.50)
SP: 17.00
Beat SP: Yes
+9% better than SP · +0.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:58, 15 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatMAIDEN
Noble Exhibit
Punchestown · 14:10 · 14 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
9/4 → 2/1
Still 9/4 at 5 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets
6 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 5/2 (3.60)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: No
-4% better than SP · -1.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:55, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Piscean Star
Yarmouth · 14:17 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 11/1
Still 14/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
17 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 3 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 16/1 (18.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +2.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:52, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPChaseHANDICAP
Jet of Dreams
Uttoxeter · 15:00 · 5 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
17/2 → 15/2
Still 17/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Matchbook · Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 4.
• First run after wind surgery.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: No
-23% better than SP · -2.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:46, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Sanctijude
Punchestown · 16:10 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 11/2
Still 15/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
21 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 9lb. 6lb below career-high OR 84.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+64% better than SP · +7.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:46, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMHurdleHANDICAP
Cinnodin
Uttoxeter · 14:00 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 15/2
Still 8/1 at 11 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Star Sports · Unibet · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · Dragon Bet · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
21 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Uttoxeter. 1/2 at this course.
• Trainer in form. 40% last 14 days.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+25% better than SP · +2.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:46, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Rest Your Mind
Punchestown · 16:10 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 4 firms when alerted
William Hill · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+13% better than SP · +1.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:28, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Amarachi
Wolverhampton (AW) · 19:00 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/2 → 9/4
Still 5/2 at 11 firms when alerted
Betfred · Star Sports · Unibet · William Hill · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · LiveScore Bet · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet · Virgin Bet
6 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 13 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: No
-12% better than SP · -3.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:25, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Saxophonic
Wolverhampton (AW) · 20:30 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/2 → 9/4
Still 5/2 at 8 firms when alerted
Betfred · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
12 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 21 Aug · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/4 (3.65)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: No
-9% better than SP · -2.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:22, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Signor Ferrari
Punchestown · 16:40 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 4 firms when alerted
10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
18 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 11lb. 13lb below career-high OR 71.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +12.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:19, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Harry Mole
Wolverhampton (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 4/1
Still 11/2 at 3 firms when alerted
10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets
19 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 27 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 4.00
Beat SP: Yes
+63% better than SP · +9.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:16, 15 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Ballybunion
Wolverhampton (AW) · 19:30 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/2 → 2/1
Still 5/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Unibet · Smarkets
9 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 31 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 2.62
Beat SP: Yes
+34% better than SP · +9.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:16, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatMAIDEN
Wunderschon
Punchestown · 13:40 · 14 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
10/1 → 8/1
Still 10/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Betfred · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 31 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +9.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:16, 15 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Rampage
Punchestown · 16:40 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 14 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Unibet · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
10 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 1 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+27% better than SP · +3.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:10, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPHurdleMAIDEN
Time In A Bottle
Uttoxeter · 14:30 · 9 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
11/4 → 5/2
Still 11/4 at 7 firms when alerted
William Hill · Smarkets · Matchbook · 7Bet · Betfair Sportsbook · Dragon Bet · Paddy Power
14 firms had already cut to 5/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 25% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 2m4f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 3/1 (3.95)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: No
-39% better than SP · -9.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:10, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Captive Beauty
Wolverhampton (AW) · 19:00 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 15 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet365 · Star Sports · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Midnite · Quinn Bet · Virgin Bet
6 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 30 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 11
Alert price: 6/1 (6.80)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+51% better than SP · +7.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:54, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Sea Her Excel
Redcar · 16:23 · 5 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 20 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +7.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:54, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Mandolin Rain
Yarmouth · 15:47 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 9/1
25 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 3 to Class 5.
Risks
• Unproven at 7f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 20 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+100% better than SP · +10.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:42, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Diomed Duke
Yarmouth · 17:18 · 6 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 7 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · Star Sports · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
11 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 7lb. Career-high OR 80.
Previously on record
Alerted 3 Sept · won
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 3.50
Beat SP: Yes
+57% better than SP · +10.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:39, 15 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Dragon Spin
Redcar · 16:23 · 5 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 5/1
Still 11/2 at 2 firms when alerted
BetTom · Hollywood Bets
17 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 3lb below career-high OR 69.
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+87% better than SP · +12.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:30, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatMAIDEN
Vico Road
Punchestown · 15:40 · 14 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Matchbook · 10 Bet · BetWright · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets
19 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 15/2 (8.40)
SP: 19.00
Beat SP: No
-56% better than SP · -6.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:18, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlat
If You Like
Yarmouth · 15:17 · 6 runners · Other
THE MOVE
12/1 → 10/1
Still 12/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time t.
• Trainer in form. 30% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 12/1 (14.00)
SP: 23.00
Beat SP: No
-39% better than SP · -2.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:18, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Patrick Street
Punchestown · 16:40 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
Still 15/2 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets
21 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 11 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 8/1 (9.20)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: No
-3% better than SP · -0.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:18, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlat
Channel Islands
Yarmouth · 15:17 · 6 runners · Other
THE MOVE
14/1 → 11/1
25 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: Yes
+41% better than SP · +3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:09, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Arizona Star
Punchestown · 16:40 · 14 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/1 → 8/1
Still 10/1 at 2 firms when alerted
BetTom · Hollywood Bets
19 firms had already cut to 8/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 5 Sept · lost
RESULT
NON-RUNNER
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
Permanent record · Fired 10:09, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Not That Guy
Wolverhampton (AW) · 18:00 · 12 runners · Other
THE MOVE
2/1 → 6/4
Still 2/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook
4 firms had already cut to 6/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 2/1 (2.96)
SP: 2.00
Beat SP: Yes
+48% better than SP · +16.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:06, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWHurdleHANDICAP
Billy Boi Blue
Uttoxeter · 14:00 · 8 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/1 → 7/1
Still 9/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 7/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Uttoxeter. 1/1 at this course.
Risks
• Up 9lb. 12lb below career-high OR 125.
Previously on record
Alerted 23 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:06, 15 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGHurdleHANDICAP
Lady Dapple Rose
Uttoxeter · 16:30 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
Still 15/2 at 6 firms when alerted
Betfred · Unibet · William Hill · 10 Bet · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet
20 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 8.50
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:03, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatMAIDEN
The Good Wife
Punchestown · 13:40 · 14 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
6/1 → 11/2
Still 6/1 at 2 firms when alerted
10 Bet · Matchbook
22 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 13/2 (7.50)
SP: 3.00
Beat SP: Yes
+150% better than SP · +20.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:00, 15 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlat
Iron Dome
Wolverhampton (AW) · 18:00 · 12 runners · Other
THE MOVE
10/3 → 11/4
Still 10/3 at 8 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · Hollywood Bets · BetTom · Matchbook · Smarkets
18 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 16 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 7/2 (4.50)
SP: 3.25
Beat SP: Yes
+38% better than SP · +8.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:00, 15 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatMAIDEN
Silver Kiss
Punchestown · 13:40 · 14 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 12 firms when alerted
Unibet · Bet365 · William Hill · Smarkets · 10 Bet · Matchbook · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
16 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 23 Aug · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: No
-25% better than SP · -4.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:57, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Rock Steady Beat
Redcar · 14:23 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Smarkets · Matchbook · Hollywood Bets · Midnite
19 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 22% last 14 days.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/2 (5.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:57, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlat
Roman Crystal
Redcar · 14:23 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
16/1 → 11/1
Still 16/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Midnite
23 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 8 Aug · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 18/1 (19.00)
SP: 11.00
Beat SP: Yes
+73% better than SP · +3.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:54, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlat
Lady Dublin
Redcar · 14:23 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
3/1 → 11/4
Still 3/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Star Sports · Midnite · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetWright · Hollywood Bets
21 firms had already cut to 11/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 25% last 14 days.
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 10/3 (4.33)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:54, 15 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Believe Believe
Punchestown · 17:13 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 3/1
Still 10/3 at 10 firms when alerted
Betfred · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · Matchbook · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · Midnite · Quinn Bet
9 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 20% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 7/2 (4.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: No
-25% better than SP · -5.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:54, 15 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Nephin Mountain
Punchestown · 17:13 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 14 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Betfred · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · Matchbook · 10 Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Midnite · Quinn Bet · Virgin Bet
8 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 11lb. Career-high OR 58.
Previously on record
Alerted 12 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 6/1 (7.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+17% better than SP · +2.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:54, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlat
Fern Clyde
Redcar · 14:23 · 7 runners · Other
THE MOVE
11/2 → 9/2
Still 11/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 12 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +7.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:51, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Mount King
Redcar · 14:53 · 13 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 3 firms when alerted
10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Risks
• Up 7lb. 9lb below career-high OR 72.
Previously on record
Alerted 29 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +1.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:48, 15 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Candy Warhol
Wolverhampton (AW) · 16:28 · 12 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 4/1
Still 9/2 at 9 firms when alerted
William Hill · Bet365 · Betfred · Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet
17 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 2 to Class 6.
Risks
• Up 11lb. 10lb below career-high OR 65.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +3.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:45, 15 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlat
Golden Splendour
Punchestown · 15:10 · 6 runners · Other
THE MOVE
17/2 → 6/1
Still 17/2 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom
20 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m1f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 9/1 (10.00)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+122% better than SP · +12.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:42, 15 Sept 2026
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How these receipts are graded

Each alert is graded on price captured, not on win or loss. Once the race is run, the alerted price is compared against the official Starting Price and the Betfair Starting Price. A receipt passes when the alerted price beat SP. The result of the race — won, placed, unplaced — is shown as a secondary detail on every card.

Nothing on this page is edited after publication. Alerts that did not beat SP stay up exactly as alerts that did. Full grading methodology →

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