At 18:01 on 8 October 2026, 19 bookmakers cut Likeness from 6/1 to 5/1 in the 19:00 at Southwell (AW). At the time of the alert, 6/1 was still available at Matchbook and Hollywood Bets. The race returned an SP of 5.50, making the alert price +31% better than SP, or +4.3 probability points. It finished 2 of 9, beaten 0.1 lengths.
🟡 MEDIUM Flat HANDICAP
Southwell (AW) · 19:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
Still 6/1 at 2 firms when alerted
19 firms had already cut to 5/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Alerts rated Medium won 11% and placed 38% in HorseWhale’s current record
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 8lb. 1lb below career-high OR 76.
Previously on record
Alerted 27 Sept · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 6/1 (7.20)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +4.3 probability points
Fired 18:01, 8 Oct 2026
What this record shows
This is a permanent HorseWhale record of a qualifying market-movement alert. It records the observed event and what happened next; it is not a recommendation or a prediction of the race result.
Alert recorded
18:01 on 8 October 2026
Qualifying bookmaker movement
19 bookmakers had cut when alerted
Earlier price still recorded
6/1 at Matchbook · Hollywood Bets
Context at the time
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Up 8lb. 1lb below career-high OR 76.
Outcome and grade
PLACED · SP: 5.50 · Beat SP: Yes
A recorded price cut does not identify individual bettors, bet size, bookmaker liabilities or the reason for the move. A horse can have a recorded move and still lose.
