At 07:30 on 14 September 2026, 17 bookmakers cut Fractional from 5/2 to 9/4 in the 16:51 at Thirsk. At the time of the alert, 5/2 was still available at Matchbook and Smarkets. The race returned an SP of 5.00, making the alert price -28% better than SP, or -7.8 probability points. It won by 1.25.
🔵 TOP Flat HANDICAP
Thirsk · 16:51 · 9 runners · Handicap
Still 5/2 at 2 firms when alerted
17 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• Trainer in form. 25% last 14 days.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 13lb below career-high OR 83.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 5/2 (3.60)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
-28% better than SP · -7.8 probability points
Fired 07:30, 14 Sept 2026
What this record shows
This is a permanent HorseWhale record of a qualifying market-movement alert. It records the observed event and what happened next; it is not a recommendation or a prediction of the race result.
Alert recorded
07:30 on 14 September 2026
Qualifying bookmaker movement
17 bookmakers had cut when alerted
Earlier price still recorded
5/2 at Matchbook · Smarkets
Context at the time
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• Trainer in form. 25% last 14 days.
Risks
• Up 7lb. 13lb below career-high OR 83.
Outcome and grade
WON · SP: 5.00 · Beat SP: No
A recorded price cut does not identify individual bettors, bet size, bookmaker liabilities or the reason for the move. A horse can have a recorded move and still lose.
