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Newcastle (AW)

Every steam move alert fired at Newcastle (AW), timestamped and graded against SP and Betfair SP.

Published 6 August 2026 · Updated 19 September 2026 · HorseWhale

All time
190
alerts
74%
beat SP
+3.3
avg probability points vs SP
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Barleybrown
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 9/2
Still 11/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
24 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/2 (6.40)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+42% better than SP · +6.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 20:21, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Walk On Walk On
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
13/2 → 11/2
Still 13/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet
20 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/1 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+23% better than SP · +2.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 19:36, 19 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Asadjumeirah
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 4/1
Still 11/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Unibet · Hollywood Bets
24 firms had already cut to 4/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 3/21 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 3 Sept · won
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +1.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 18:48, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Tickets
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 11/2
Still 6/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Smarkets · Matchbook
23 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/12 at this course.
• Trainer in form. 43% last 14 days.
Previously on record
Alerted 3 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+23% better than SP · +2.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 18:45, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Grow Old With Me
Newcastle (AW) · 17:55 · 6 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
2/1 → 13/8
Still 2/1 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom
10 firms had already cut to 13/8 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
RESULT
LOST · finished 3
Alert price: 2/1 (3.00)
SP: 2.75
Beat SP: Yes
+9% better than SP · +3.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 17:54, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatMAIDEN
Weffaag
Newcastle (AW) · 17:55 · 6 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
4/6 → 8/15
Still 4/6 at 3 firms when alerted
BetTom · LiveScore Bet · Virgin Bet
6 firms had already cut to 8/15 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First run after wind surgery.
• Trainer in form. 24% last 14 days.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 4/6 (1.67)
SP: 1.57
Beat SP: Yes
+6% better than SP · +3.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 17:12, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatMAIDEN
Aeternitas
Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 10 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
8/1 → 15/2
Still 8/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets · Virgin Bet
22 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Risks
• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 17/2 (9.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+58% better than SP · +6.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 16:57, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
South Shore Island
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/1 → 17/2
Still 10/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · LiveScore Bet · Matchbook · Virgin Bet
9 firms had already cut to 17/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 11 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: No
-8% better than SP · -0.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:52, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Ellie's de Vega
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 10 firms when alerted
Coral · Ladbrokes · Unibet · William Hill · Matchbook · 7Bet · Hollywood Bets · LiveScore Bet · Smarkets · Virgin Bet
8 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/5 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 4/1 (5.10)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+36% better than SP · +7.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:49, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Hundred Caps
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 13/2
Still 8/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First run after wind surgery.
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 8/1 (9.20)
SP: 7.00
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 13:31, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Surgeon Commander
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
7/1 → 6/1
Still 7/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 3/6 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 31 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+42% better than SP · +4.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 12:13, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Melissa Honey
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 3/1
Still 10/3 at 8 firms when alerted
Unibet · Boyle Sports · Matchbook · Smarkets · 7Bet · BetTom · BetWright · Hollywood Bets
16 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 5 to Class 6.
Previously on record
Alerted 11 Aug · won
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 4/1 (4.90)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: No
-2% better than SP · -0.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 12:04, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Ravenscraig Castle
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
17/2 → 15/2
Still 17/2 at 2 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Smarkets
20 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 9/1 (9.80)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+23% better than SP · +2.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:46, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Tees George
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/2 → 7/2
Still 9/2 at 10 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Boyle Sports · Star Sports · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power
4 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 28 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 5/1 (5.80)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: No
-3% better than SP · -0.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:10, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Project Kinsman
Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 10/1
Still 12/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Smarkets
22 firms had already cut to 10/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +2.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:07, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Azuinthejungle
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
12/1 → 9/1
Still 12/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Unibet · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets
20 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 9.00
Beat SP: Yes
+44% better than SP · +3.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:04, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Blue Force
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
20/1 → 14/1
Still 20/1 at 2 firms when alerted
10 Bet · Hollywood Bets
23 firms had already cut to 14/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 7 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 20/1 (21.00)
SP: 26.00
Beat SP: No
-19% better than SP · -0.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 11:04, 19 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Volenti
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 9/2
Still 11/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
23 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 31 Aug · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: Yes
+44% better than SP · +6.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:58, 19 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Smart Vision
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 11/2
Still 6/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Betfred · Smarkets · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook
12 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · bottom 40% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• First-time v.
Previously on record
Alerted 13 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 8
Alert price: 6/1 (7.20)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+31% better than SP · +4.3 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:58, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
West Sleekburn Lad
Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Unibet · William Hill · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet
18 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 15% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 6.
• Trainer in form. 25% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+60% better than SP · +5.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:52, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Manbearpig
Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 7 firms when alerted
Star Sports · Unibet · Hollywood Bets · Quinn Bet · 7Bet · BetTom · Midnite
16 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 26 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+136% better than SP · +10.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:45, 19 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Lord Abama
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Hollywood Bets
22 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 12/1 (13.00)
SP: 12.00
Beat SP: Yes
+8% better than SP · +0.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:37, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Parole Officer
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/1 → 9/1
Still 11/1 at 6 firms when alerted
William Hill · Matchbook · 7Bet · BetWright · Dragon Bet · Smarkets
17 firms had already cut to 9/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 10
Alert price: 11/1 (12.50)
SP: 4.33
Beat SP: Yes
+189% better than SP · +15.1 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:18, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Men of Honour
Newcastle (AW) · 19:00 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 6/1
Still 15/2 at 1 firm when alerted
Hollywood Bets
19 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 2 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+6% better than SP · +0.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:15, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Raise The Stakes
Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
11/2 → 9/2
Still 11/2 at 4 firms when alerted
William Hill · Hollywood Bets · Paddy Power · Matchbook
8 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 30% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
Previously on record
Alerted 8 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 11/2 (6.50)
SP: 5.00
Beat SP: Yes
+30% better than SP · +4.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:06, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatMAIDEN
Deeno Bambino
Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 10 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
14/1 → 12/1
Still 14/1 at 3 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets
21 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 25% of alerts today
Why it rates
• First-time t.
• Trainer in form. 100% last 14 days.
Risks
• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 16/1 (16.50)
SP: 15.00
Beat SP: Yes
+10% better than SP · +0.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:03, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Wyvill
Newcastle (AW) · 16:45 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/3 → 3/1
Still 10/3 at 12 firms when alerted
Unibet · Betfred · Star Sports · William Hill · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Smarkets · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet · Matchbook
8 firms had already cut to 3/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m4½f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 7/2 (4.50)
SP: 4.50
Beat SP: No
+0% better than SP · +0.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 10:03, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Bajan Bandit
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 6/1
Still 8/1 at 5 firms when alerted
Boyle Sports · William Hill · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets
19 firms had already cut to 6/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/9 at this course.
Risks
• Up 10lb. 23lb below career-high OR 82.
Previously on record
Alerted 31 Aug · lost
RESULT
WON · finished 1
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 6.00
Beat SP: Yes
+50% better than SP · +5.6 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:54, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatMAIDEN
Miss Eileen
Newcastle (AW) · 17:20 · 10 runners · Maiden
THE MOVE
18/1 → 12/1
Still 18/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Hollywood Bets · Matchbook
23 firms had already cut to 12/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 6f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 18/1 (19.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+46% better than SP · +2.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:54, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Pride Eye
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
6/1 → 11/2
Still 6/1 at 9 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Unibet · William Hill · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets · Matchbook · Paddy Power · Quinn Bet
17 firms had already cut to 11/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 10 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 5
Alert price: 7/1 (8.00)
SP: 6.50
Beat SP: Yes
+23% better than SP · +2.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:24, 19 Sept 2026
🟡 MEDIUMFlatHANDICAP
Keep The Gold
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
14/1 → 11/1
25 firms had already cut to 11/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Medium · bottom 30% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 8 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 11/1 (12.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: Yes
+26% better than SP · +2.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 09:15, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Tawaazon
Newcastle (AW) · 20:00 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/1 → 9/2
Still 5/1 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · 10 Bet · BetTom · Hollywood Bets
19 firms had already cut to 9/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Trainer in form. 100% last 14 days.
Previously on record
Alerted 29 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 6
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 3.50
Beat SP: Yes
+71% better than SP · +11.9 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:51, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Park Lane Penny
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
8/1 → 13/2
Still 8/1 at 1 firm when alerted
Matchbook
23 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 5% of alerts today
Risks
• Unproven at 1m2f. 0 previous runs at this trip.
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 8/1 (9.00)
SP: 7.50
Beat SP: Yes
+20% better than SP · +2.2 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:51, 19 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Gemini Man
Newcastle (AW) · 16:10 · 11 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
4/1 → 7/2
Still 4/1 at 6 firms when alerted
Bet365 · Coral · Ladbrokes · William Hill · Matchbook · Smarkets
13 firms had already cut to 7/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/3 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 3 Sept · placed
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 5/1 (6.00)
SP: 5.50
Beat SP: Yes
+9% better than SP · +1.5 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 08:36, 19 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
Falcon Nine
Newcastle (AW) · 20:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
10/1 → 15/2
Still 10/1 at 2 firms when alerted
Unibet · Paddy Power
17 firms had already cut to 15/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 9 Sept · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 10/1 (11.00)
SP: 9.50
Beat SP: Yes
+16% better than SP · +1.4 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Bonnie's Boy
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
5/2 → 9/4
Still 5/2 at 4 firms when alerted
Matchbook · Betfair Sportsbook · Paddy Power · Smarkets
10 firms had already cut to 9/4 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
• Newcastle (AW). 1/5 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 22 Aug · placed
RESULT
PLACED · finished 2
Alert price: 3/1 (3.90)
SP: 3.75
Beat SP: Yes
+4% better than SP · +1.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:45, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Great
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
Still 15/2 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom
21 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 20% of alerts today
Previously on record
Alerted 30 Aug · lost
RESULT
PLACED · finished 3
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 10.00
Beat SP: No
-15% better than SP · -1.8 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:39, 19 Sept 2026
🟢 STRONGFlatHANDICAP
American Bay
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
15/2 → 13/2
Still 15/2 at 1 firm when alerted
BetTom
23 firms had already cut to 13/2 when alerted
Selection rating
Strong · top 50% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Previously on record
Alerted 4 Sept · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 7
Alert price: 15/2 (8.50)
SP: 8.00
Beat SP: Yes
+6% better than SP · +0.7 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:39, 19 Sept 2026
🔵 TOPFlatHANDICAP
Get Up Everybody
Newcastle (AW) · 19:30 · 9 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
9/4 → 2/1
Still 9/4 at 4 firms when alerted
Bet365 · William Hill · Smarkets · Matchbook
8 firms had already cut to 2/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Top · top 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Newcastle (AW). 1/3 at this course.
Previously on record
Alerted 20 Aug · won
RESULT
LOST · finished 4
Alert price: 5/2 (3.50)
SP: 2.10
Beat SP: Yes
+67% better than SP · +19.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 19 Sept 2026
⚪ LOWFlatHANDICAP
Castan
Newcastle (AW) · 18:30 · 10 runners · Handicap
THE MOVE
20/1 → 14/1
23 firms had already cut to 14/1 when alerted
Selection rating
Low · bottom 10% of alerts today
Why it rates
• Down in class. Class 4 to Class 5.
Previously on record
Alerted 20 Aug · lost
RESULT
LOST · finished 9
Alert price: 14/1 (15.00)
SP: 13.00
Beat SP: Yes
+15% better than SP · +1.0 probability points
Permanent record · Fired 07:30, 19 Sept 2026
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